Peak volume up or down???

[poozer2000]

so In this current worldwide financial climate do you think your peak volume will be more or less than last year?
will people spend so much this year ?

personally i think that people wont spend so much in the shops this christmas but will search out the bargins on the internet so i dont think volume will be greater than last year

[drewed]

id say a 3 or 4 percent increase over last year....online shopping will increase due to not having to brun gas driving place to place and online retailers are going to have a lot of offers

[New Englander]

Really....why are we being told a 3-4% decline? We've already had the PCM that we are NOT hiring seasonal drivers and will run with helpers due to the planned decrease in volume.

My plan is - were going to be hurting bad!

[UpstateNYUPSer]

Volume forecasts are simply estimates based upon a number of factors. We have not had any PCMs yet on peak other than being asked to start looking for helpers. I would have to agree that the brick and mortar stores will have a tough Christmas but online retailers should do quite well, especially those who offer free shipping or other incentives.

[covemaster]

During the recession of the early 90's the catalog sales were very high and all the pkg cars went out slammed!! I agree with the other poster with the internet replacing the catalog shopper and QVC will be heavy also!

[BigBrownSanta]

If it's any consolation, there's only 18 working days for peak this year, as opposed to 19 days last year and 20 days the year before. Because Christmas will seem to have sneaked (snuck) up this year, I expect it to be very heavy that last week before Christmas due to procrastination.

Maybe we'll get lucky this year and it won't snow during peak.

[Cementups]

Originally Posted by drewed

id say a 3 or 4 percent increase over last year....online shopping will increase due to not having to brun gas driving place to place and online retailers are going to have a lot of offers

This is what I noticed already. Why spend $10 in gas when you can spend $5 in shipping. Customers ask me if we notice a decrease and that is what I tell them. Logic FTW

[brownmonster]

Doesn't matter. You will be slammed either way. The company might have less volume but you as a driver won't.

[over9five]

Everyone order your wreaths now!!!

Almost time for Covemaster and I to go to Bangor!!!

Yup, we had one helluva trip last year in snow and ice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lotsa coffee!

[AKCoverMan]

Peak has started early for us here in The Last Frontier. Our state doles out a chunk of the money it takes in from oil revenues to the citizens every year; this year was a whopper over $3k for every resident. So a family of four gets close to $13,000 windfall.

Can you say "Add to Shopping Cart"?

The first wave of this money went out couple of weeks ago, to recepients who had signed up for direct deposit. Within a few days our normal volume for the center (8000-9000 pecies) had ballooned up to numbers we usually see during the hight of peak i.e. 12000+. With no seasonal drivers, or helpers.

I saw management people pulled in from other departments taking out P500's. Nobody complained as we all had 12 hours of work and every available union person driving.

It has gotten better over last few days but now the wave of checks for people who do NOT use direct deposit just hit over the weekend so probably next couple of weeks will be heavy also.

I guess too much work is better than not enough!

Ernie
Anchorage, AK

[Brown287]

WOW!.....We have winfall checks here in California too, but in our case the checks go in the opposite direction. The bone heads in this state allways cry about the they dont have enough revenue, so thier answer is.....more taxes. So my question is can I transfer? With that off my chest now I can say that campared to business deliveries, residential deliveries have definitely not declined at the same pace. People are always going to search out the bargins, and the internet will have them.

[rocket man]

ups 100 plus years old 3 times as many people in the world twice as many computer sales its gonna be blown out like everyother year.b its gonna come from diffrent ways oca,s call tags, every wich way , tie up your boots get plenty to drink and get ready good luck .

[brownhorn]

Somehow I just have to believe we won't be sitting around twiddling our thumbs the next few months! Recession, Wall Street collapse, whatever calamity happens, the big brown machine keeps chugging along!

[BLACKBOX]

They give Alaskans a rebate every year?? Wow! Peak has'nt started yet in our hub but we do have "spikes" of peak-like volume. All I know is I can't wait to use my Surefire flashlight I got last Xmas. According to the Farmers Almanac, colder than usual weather in our part of the woods this year.

[sortaisle]

Peak will suck. Enough said.

[sortaisle]

Originally Posted by BLACKBOX

They give Alaskans a rebate every year?? Wow! Peak has'nt started yet in our hub but we do have "spikes" of peak-like volume. All I know is I can't wait to use my Surefire flashlight I got last Xmas. According to the Farmers Almanac, colder than usual weather in our part of the woods this year.

There's no woods in Area 51, you can't fool me!

[westsideworma]

when I was a loader they used to tell me they plan for peak all year....last year was my first as a management person and I felt the same way as a loader. "You guys spent all year planning and THIS is the best you could come up with? I sure hope you fired that panel of experts lol."

My best peak was my first one. 12am start monday, 1am rest of the week. Plenty of time to get your work done and help others who needed it as well has handle any other mishaps that may have occurred.

My last one? double the volume and start 45 min earlier at most....great plan. Except for mondays, on mondays we started somewhat early (2:30ish AM).

I don't even wanna know what this one will be like...

[Great Gazoo]

Whaaa, whaaa, Whaaa! Volume is down, volume is down! I've been hearing that BS for umpteen years now and it's all nonsense. I have more stops than ever on that car and revenue is up every year. Nothing but more lies and BS, as usual. It does not suprise me, but please don't you buy in to the "Volume is down" fairy tale.
I also do not belive in Santa, Easter Bunny or that Jim Casey was hetero.

[browndevil]

Originally Posted by Great Gazoo

Whaaa, whaaa, Whaaa! Volume is down, volume is down! I've been hearing that BS for umpteen years now and it's all nonsense. I have more stops than ever on that car and revenue is up every year. Nothing but more lies and BS, as usual. It does not suprise me, but please don't you buy in to the "Volume is down" fairy tale.
I also do not belive in Santa, Easter Bunny or that Jim Casey was hetero.

LMFAO! Care to comment further on Jim Casey? This inquiring mind needs to know

[McLeod]

I had a customer tell me the other day; they live an hour from nearest major city it is much cheaper to have packages sent to their home. They can go to their fav. stores website and buy online. They save alot of time this way!!

[IDoLessWorkThanMost]

Originally Posted by Great Gazoo

Whaaa, whaaa, Whaaa! Volume is down, volume is down! I've been hearing that BS for umpteen years now and it's all nonsense. I have more stops than ever on that car and revenue is up every year. Nothing but more lies and BS, as usual. It does not suprise me, but please don't you buy in to the "Volume is down" fairy tale.
I also do not belive in Santa, Easter Bunny or that Jim Casey was hetero.

I don't know. Volume hasn't been up or down IMO. fairly steady. This is coming from CHEMA, so when I talk about volume I'm talking about all of NE. I noticed actually a bit lower volume on average over the past two months or so, despite back to school and halloween which is when volume picks up a bit. Overall just the same 'ole, which is probably what you're getting at. But of course the amount of stops on your truck has next to corrolation value with actual numbers and UPS as a whole.

[govols019]

that Jim Casey was hetero.

Does it matter?