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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Brownslave688" data-source="post: 4761288" data-attributes="member: 34439">Ahhhh I see you’re using projections as if they’re fact. All I’m saying is with the information at hand that projection seems high. There’s a few possibilities here. The projection is high. There’s a decent probability of this. Previous  projections have mostly errored on the high side. Dropping the PCR value for tests has greatly reduced the number of positive tests but will have little effect on the death numbers. We won’t know this for a few weeks because for the 8000th time deaths are a lagging indicator. Or maybe the CDC knows of another plan to send the sick to nursing homes that will inflate numbers. All I can do is work with the information that is public. It’s possible the cdc has info we do not. Without that info my multiple college level statistics classes tell me their estimate is high.</blockquote>