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<blockquote data-quote="watdaflock?" data-source="post: 4677190" data-attributes="member: 53239">Quote where I said that. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4#:~:text=The%20formula%20for%20calculating%20the,immune%20to%20reach%20herd%20immunity" target="_blank">The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19</a>.&quot;models that calculate numbers at the lower end of that range rely on assumptions about how people interact in social networks that might not hold true, Scarpino says. Low-end estimates imagine that people with many contacts will get infected first, and that because they have a large number of contacts, they will spread the virus to more people. As these ‘superspreaders’ gain immunity to the virus, the transmission chains among those who are still susceptible are greatly reduced. And “as a result of that, you very quickly get to the herd-immunity threshold”, Scarpino says. But if it turns out that anybody could become a superspreader, then “those assumptions that people are relying on to get the estimates down to around 20% or 30% are just not accurate”, Scarpino explains. The result is that the herd-immunity threshold will be closer to 60–70%, which is what most models show&quot;</blockquote>

[QUOTE="watdaflock?, post: 4677190, member: 53239"] Quote where I said that. [URL='https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4#:~:text=The%20formula%20for%20calculating%20the,immune%20to%20reach%20herd%20immunity']The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19[/URL]. "models that calculate numbers at the lower end of that range rely on assumptions about how people interact in social networks that might not hold true, Scarpino says. Low-end estimates imagine that people with many contacts will get infected first, and that because they have a large number of contacts, they will spread the virus to more people. As these ‘superspreaders’ gain immunity to the virus, the transmission chains among those who are still susceptible are greatly reduced. And “as a result of that, you very quickly get to the herd-immunity threshold”, Scarpino says. But if it turns out that anybody could become a superspreader, then “those assumptions that people are relying on to get the estimates down to around 20% or 30% are just not accurate”, Scarpino explains. The result is that the herd-immunity threshold will be closer to 60–70%, which is what most models show" [/QUOTE]

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