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<blockquote data-quote="804brown" data-source="post: 948071" data-attributes="member: 29553"><a href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/marchapril_2012/features/we_can_live_with_a_nuclear_ira035772.php" target="_blank">The Washington Monthly - The Magazine - We Can Live with a Nuclear Iran</a>The trouble with this image of Iran is that it does not reflect actual Iranian behavior. More than three decades of history demonstrate that the Islamic Republic&#039;s rulers, like most rulers elsewhere, are overwhelmingly concerned with preserving their regime and their power-in this life, not some future one. They are no more likely to let theological imperatives lead them into self-destructive behavior than other leaders whose religious faiths envision an afterlife. Iranian rulers may have a history of valorizing martyrdom-as they did when sending young militiamen to their deaths in near-hopeless attacks during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s-but they have never given any indication of wanting to become martyrs themselves. In fact, the Islamic Republic&#039;s conduct beyond its borders has been characterized by caution. Even the most seemingly ruthless Iranian behavior has been motivated by specific, immediate concerns of regime survival. The government assassinated exiled Iranian dissidents in Europe in the 1980s and &#039;90s, for example, because it saw them as a counterrevolutionary threat. The assassinations ended when they started inflicting too much damage on Iran&#039;s relations with European governments. Iran&#039;s rulers are constantly balancing a very worldly set of strategic interests. The principles of deterrence are not invalid just because the party to be deterred wears a turban and a beard.If the stereotyped image of Iranian leaders had real basis in fact, we would see more aggressive and brash Iranian behavior in the Middle East than we have. Some have pointed to the Iranian willingness to incur heavy losses in continuing the Iran-Iraq War. But that was a response to Saddam Hussein&#039;s invasion of the Iranian homeland, not some bellicose venture beyond Iran&#039;s borders. And even that war ended with Ayatollah Khomeini deciding that the &quot;poison&quot; of agreeing to a cease-fire was better than the alternative. (He even described the cease- fire as &quot;God&#039;s will&quot;-so much for the notion that the Iranians&#039; God always pushes them toward violence and martyrdom.)</blockquote>

[QUOTE="804brown, post: 948071, member: 29553"] [URL="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/marchapril_2012/features/we_can_live_with_a_nuclear_ira035772.php"]The Washington Monthly - The Magazine - We Can Live with a Nuclear Iran[/URL] The trouble with this image of Iran is that it does not reflect actual Iranian behavior. More than three decades of history demonstrate that the Islamic Republic's rulers, like most rulers elsewhere, are overwhelmingly concerned with preserving their regime and their power-in this life, not some future one. They are no more likely to let theological imperatives lead them into self-destructive behavior than other leaders whose religious faiths envision an afterlife. Iranian rulers may have a history of valorizing martyrdom-as they did when sending young militiamen to their deaths in near-hopeless attacks during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s-but they have never given any indication of wanting to become martyrs themselves. In fact, the Islamic Republic's conduct beyond its borders has been characterized by caution. Even the most seemingly ruthless Iranian behavior has been motivated by specific, immediate concerns of regime survival. The government assassinated exiled Iranian dissidents in Europe in the 1980s and '90s, for example, because it saw them as a counterrevolutionary threat. The assassinations ended when they started inflicting too much damage on Iran's relations with European governments. Iran's rulers are constantly balancing a very worldly set of strategic interests. The principles of deterrence are not invalid just because the party to be deterred wears a turban and a beard. If the stereotyped image of Iranian leaders had real basis in fact, we would see more aggressive and brash Iranian behavior in the Middle East than we have. Some have pointed to the Iranian willingness to incur heavy losses in continuing the Iran-Iraq War. But that was a response to Saddam Hussein's invasion of the Iranian homeland, not some bellicose venture beyond Iran's borders. And even that war ended with Ayatollah Khomeini deciding that the "poison" of agreeing to a cease-fire was better than the alternative. (He even described the cease- fire as "God's will"-so much for the notion that the Iranians' God always pushes them toward violence and martyrdom.) [/QUOTE]

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