UPS Inc. has established a new and higher “baseline” for package-delivery volumes in the wake of its performance since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold more than two years ago, rating agency Standard & Poor’s said Wednesday in upgrading UPS’ debt to an “A” rating from “A-minus.”
S&P’s global ratings unit said it expects UPS’ (NYSE: UPS) revenue growth to moderate to 4% a year in 2022 and 2023, below outsized growth rates of 14% to 15% in 2020 and 2021 as pandemic-related surges in online ordering led to unprecedented spikes in delivery volumes. The S&P unit said its top-line growth expectations for UPS will be driven more by pricing trends than by volume increases. Pricing stability, along with a focus on more price-inelastic small to midsize businesses, will allow UPS to grow at levels slightly above projected U.S. GDP growth through 2023 despite possible constraints to global volume growth over that time, the report said.
The volume growth in 2020 and 2021 has established a new benchmark in delivery activity, the unit said. A “permanent shift” to online fulfillment from brick-and-mortar shopping has taken place in the wake of the pandemic, the unit said.