4th quarter numbers look good. Too bad it's in the MIP donut hole

[Signature Only]

Well it's not hard work I don't like, its the inefficiency that detracts time & energy away from delivering & pickups & sales leads. If our local management could address some PAS and loop problems, I could go back to 20 to 22 stops per hour on my heavy industrial route.

They've been given all the required information and have agreed to the changes, but the changes never get made. It's been over 7 months now. We constantly remind them and hear "Yeah, we're going to sit down and do that.

So do we have a problem with people or are they inundated with tasks coming from the division level?"

Our last center manager was great and things ran very smoothly indeed but he was quickly pulled out of our center and promoted. Now we have a new man with no management experience. Nobody is sure of his background but it's clear that he doesn't know much about package operations.

the company has always made us work our buts off. No one complained when the last contract promised you thirty bucks an hour. Did you really think this company would not expect you to work harder?

 

[BluegrassJack]

I'm OK with the stock growing also, but it hasn't. Shares are virtually the same price as they were in 1999. I'm not a fan of the purple guys, but if you had invested 100,000 in them at the time the stock went public you would have 225,000 now compared to 110,00 with UPS (not including dividends of approximately 10,000)

Uh, wrong. Remember, before the IPO the stock split and was $23 a share, zoomed above $70 with the public offering and settled. Admittedly, it settled for quite some time, but you're being disingenuous by setting a post-November 11, 1999 date for your example. Try the same calculation one day earlier and you get quite a different result.

 

[Popeye]

Uh, wrong. Remember, before the IPO the stock split and was $23 a share, zoomed above $70 with the public offering and settled. Admittedly, it settled for quite some time, but you're being disingenuous by setting a post-November 11, 1999 date for your example. Try the same calculation one day earlier and you get quite a different result.

That sorta works, except that our MIP from 2000 forward is based on the stock price on the award date each year, not the pre-IPO price. ROI is VASTLY different for shares owned pre-IPO vs. those purchased later. Ask anyone who's joined management since the IPO how they like the return on their UPS shares. Now we have two classes of UPS management people. The HAVEs and the NEVER-WILL-HAVES. The HAVES are the ones who had large stakes in UPS before the IPO, especially those who had a lot of options at IPO time. The people who joined management after that are going to be pretty much SOL.

 

[FracusBrown]

Uh, wrong. Remember, before the IPO the stock split and was $23 a share, zoomed above $70 with the public offering and settled. Admittedly, it settled for quite some time, but you're being disingenuous by setting a post-November 11, 1999 date for your example. Try the same calculation one day earlier and you get quite a different result.

Both were at market value the day after the IPO. Since then, one has grown. One has not. Any shares owned prior to the IPO were brought up to market value at the time of the IPO. It was a one time event and won't ever be repeated.

Making investment decisions based upon a one time, never re-occurring event (IPO) in the distant past makes as much sense as packing up and heading West in anticipation of the gold rush.

 

[Re-Raise]

I'm OK with the stock growing also, but it hasn't. Shares are virtually the same price as they were in 1999. I'm not a fan of the purple guys, but if you had invested 100,000 in them at the time the stock went public you would have 225,000 now compared to 110,00 with UPS (not including dividends of approximately 10,000)

Are you in management? Did you go to college?

The dividend on $100,000 invested in UPS shares THIS YEAR is $2500. How did you arrive at your estimate of $10,000 for the last 12 years?

Fed Ex pays a dividend of .5 % or $500 this year.

 

[Re-Raise]

Uh, wrong. Remember, before the IPO the stock split and was $23 a share, zoomed above $70 with the public offering and settled. Admittedly, it settled for quite some time, but you're being disingenuous by setting a post-November 11, 1999 date for your example. Try the same calculation one day earlier and you get quite a different result.

That was a good day.

 

[Karma...]

That was a good day.

Its an unfair comparison to compare stock prices when private to stock proces when gone public....better off comparing the prices each year when private and then when public...Besides, the prices when private were held at artificial levels due to fear of the union......Thats why the initial jump up when gone public.....its obvious that the current Head Dog is interested in moving the price in a positive direction.....Im curious what giveaways of the next contract.

 

[Re-Raise]

Its an unfair comparison to compare stock prices when private to stock proces when gone public....better off comparing the prices each year when private and then when public...Besides, the prices when private were held at artificial levels due to fear of the union......Thats why the initial jump up when gone public.....its obvious that the current Head Dog is interested in moving the price in a positive direction.....Im curious what giveaways of the next contract.

I don't understand much of this. You know the hourly workforce is still union don't you?

Every "Head Dog" is interested in moving the price in a positive direction, I would hope.

Who is going to be makng the "giveaways of the next contract"?

 

[Re-Raise]

Both were at market value the day after the IPO. Since then, one has grown. One has not. Any shares owned prior to the IPO were brought up to market value at the time of the IPO. It was a one time event and won't ever be repeated.

Making investment decisions based upon a one time, never re-occurring event (IPO) in the distant past makes as much sense as packing up and heading West in anticipation of the gold rush.

Maybe the stock was over bought because of the hype surrounding the IPO. Anyone like me who owned shares before the IPO is pretty happy with their return.

 

[pretzel_man]

I am not a fan of UPS as a public company....

Maybe it was necessary. I have heard some stories from people who made the pitch to the board. I heard that we didn't have enough money to pay for the stock sales of the baby boomer's retirement. I heard that we needed to do this to be a player in the Global Economy where stock is the currency.

I don't know, but I'm still not a fan.

On the other hand, there is no question that stock is at a higher price today than if we were private. As a private company, we kept our PE ratio at betwen 12 and 15. As a public company, we settled down between 18 and 21. Accept it or not, if we were private, stock would be 25% to 30% lower than it is today.

Of course, there was the initial public years where we had astronimical PE ratios between 25 and 29. As revenue grew, PE just shrunk....

This meant that new management people never saw stock growth. Any management person hired in the last 10 years has not seen any return on UPS stock. There was no reward for holding onto shares like my generation did. If we were private, they would at least have shared in the growth over the last 10 years.

To me, this is the worst part. Those new management people. That hurt our culture.

Finally, Its not totally one-sided like that.... I think those "never will haves" need to take a little responsibility too.

What do they do with the Cash portion of their award? The 50% that they can determine what to do with?

From what I see, the vast majority take cash. Our old generation never had that "choice". Are they saving it? Buying UPS stock through DESPP? Investing it in a portfolio? IRA? 401k?

If they are spending it, then that is part of the problem too.

While us old guys made some money on UPS growth, it was the "forced investment" that was the true cause. If we were "forced" to put our MIP in the S&P 500, we would have been well off too.

 

[Karma...]

I am not a fan of UPS as a public company....

Maybe it was necessary. I have heard some stories from people who made the pitch to the board. I heard that we didn't have enough money to pay for the stock sales of the baby boomer's retirement. I heard that we needed to do this to be a player in the Global Economy where stock is the currency.

I don't know, but I'm still not a fan.

On the other hand, there is no question that stock is at a higher price today than if we were private. As a private company, we kept our PE ratio at betwen 12 and 15. As a public company, we settled down between 18 and 21. Accept it or not, if we were private, stock would be 25% to 30% lower than it is today.

Of course, there was the initial public years where we had astronimical PE ratios between 25 and 29. As revenue grew, PE just shrunk....

This meant that new management people never saw stock growth. Any management person hired in the last 10 years has not seen any return on UPS stock. There was no reward for holding onto shares like my generation did. If we were private, they would at least have shared in the growth over the last 10 years.

To me, this is the worst part. Those new management people. That hurt our culture.

Finally, Its not totally one-sided like that.... I think those "never will haves" need to take a little responsibility too.

What do they do with the Cash portion of their award? The 50% that they can determine what to do with?

From what I see, the vast majority take cash. Our old generation never had that "choice". Are they saving it? Buying UPS stock through DESPP? Investing it in a portfolio? IRA? 401k?

If they are spending it, then that is part of the problem too.

While us old guys made some money on UPS growth, it was the "forced investment" that was the true cause. If we were "forced" to put our MIP in the S&P 500, we would have been well off too.

We went from the days when if one wanted to sell stock that person first had to have a nice private chat with their District Manager where that persons Partnership integrity was questioned to being encouraged to vote yes on going public (traitors) to now having too many stock choices and having 50%/50% now, later and forfeit if you leave early either by choice or being terminated......I prefer the old days.....going public has undermined the UPS Partnership...

 

[FracusBrown]

Maybe the stock was over bought because of the hype surrounding the IPO. Anyone like me who owned shares before the IPO is pretty happy with their return.

I guess I'd be happy too if I made a fortune on the IPO. Since I didn't, I have a different point of view. Either way, there has been virtually no growth in share price for the last 10+ years. When inflation is taken into consideration, the shares are actually less valuable.

 

[Re-Raise]

I guess I'd be happy too if I made a fortune on the IPO. Since I didn't, I have a different point of view. Either way, there has been virtually no growth in share price for the last 10+ years. When inflation is taken into consideration, the shares are actually less valuable.

So what is your point of view? Are you a manager who is given shares as part of your compensation? Are you buying shares on your own?

If you are unhappy with your return on your investment put your money somewhere else. If you are unhappy with the compensation you are receiving for your job, go work somewhere else.

A lot of decisions involve how much risk you wish to take. I like UPS as one of my investments because of the high dividend and their position in the industry. Ask DHL how easy it is to compete.

If you want to take a shot on a higher return, gamble on some bio-tech stock that may or may not discover the next big drug. But be prepared to handle the losses.

 

[FracusBrown]

So what is your point of view? Are you a manager who is given shares as part of your compensation? Are you buying shares on your own?

If you are unhappy with your return on your investment put your money somewhere else. If you are unhappy with the compensation you are receiving for your job, go work somewhere else.

A lot of decisions involve how much risk you wish to take. I like UPS as one of my investments because of the high dividend and their position in the industry. Ask DHL how easy it is to compete.

If you want to take a shot on a higher return, gamble on some bio-tech stock that may or may not discover the next big drug. But be prepared to handle the losses.

There has been no growth in the share price for more than 10 years. I would like to see growth in the share price. Thats my point of view. Simple.

Selling it equates to a 1/12 reduction in salary so I'm a little more tolerant of the no growth than I would be if there were no strings attached.

I haven't been given anything. I am not buying shares as I have too many eggs in that basket already. Enron should be a lesson for all. No matter how good it looks, having more than 10% of assets tied up in one investment is a bad idea.

 

[Popeye]

So what is your point of view? Are you a manager who is given shares as part of your compensation? Are you buying shares on your own?

If you are unhappy with your return on your investment put your money somewhere else. If you are unhappy with the compensation you are receiving for your job, go work somewhere else.

A lot of decisions involve how much risk you wish to take. I like UPS as one of my investments because of the high dividend and their position in the industry. Ask DHL how easy it is to compete.

If you want to take a shot on a higher return, gamble on some bio-tech stock that may or may not discover the next big drug. But be prepared to handle the losses.

Let's not lose sight of the fact that the rules of the game continue to change mid-stream. it's not as simple as 'go work somewhere else'. The current policies are all moving in the direction of making UPS a really bad place to leave, not making it a good place to stay. UPS stock used to be something that everyone wanted, but only UPS management people can have. Now they keep devising new and creative ways to force us to keep it whether we want to or not. If you've been at UPS for a while and you leave, you leave a lot of money that you earned sitting on the table.

 

[Re-Raise]

There has been no growth in the share price for more than 10 years. I would like to see growth in the share price. Thats my point of view. Simple.

Selling it equates to a 1/12 reduction in salary so I'm a little more tolerant of the no growth than I would be if there were no strings attached.

I haven't been given anything. I am not buying shares as I have too many eggs in that basket already. Enron should be a lesson for all. No matter how good it looks, having more than 10% of assets tied up in one investment is a bad idea.

I am an hourly who got lucky by buying a significant number of shares with money given to me by my father pre-ipo when they opened the stock up to us. Not many drivers took advantage of this.

Since I am not in management I don't know much about the MIP and how long they expect you to hold shares.

I think a lot of stocks were overvalued when UPS went public and like p-man stated our p/e ratio was probably too high. All we can do as employees is try to increase earnings. How the market responds to the earnings depends on many factors out of our control.

 

[brownmonster]

I am an hourly who got lucky by buying a significant number of shares with money given to me by my father pre-ipo when they opened the stock up to us. Not many drivers took advantage of this.

Since I am not in management I don't know much about the MIP and how long they expect you to hold shares.

I think a lot of stocks were overvalued when UPS went public and like p-man stated our p/e ratio was probably too high. All we can do as employees is try to increase earnings. How the market responds to the earnings depends on many factors out of our control.

I would like to know how long the IPO was in the planning stages. By going public at the peak of the market it seems as though the company was trying to jump on the bandwagon.

 

[Catatonic]

I would like to know how long the IPO was in the planning stages. By going public at the peak of the market it seems as though the company was trying to jump on the bandwagon.

I don't know what difference that tidbit of information could make but I remember talk of going public back in 1993.

 

[PriceyandDicey]

In consideration of the idea that "one leaves alot on the table if you leave" and that we have earned that pay. I look it as the MIP being 1/2 of what they sell it to us as....i.e 2.4 is really a 1.2.... I will always be grateful and fully appreciative of any MIP but never the less the RSU's aren't "my" money or stock so to hell with it. It is just a glass half full or half empty situation in my mind. The RSU's are similarly a figment of ur imagination at least until October. In theory it should keep you in the boat, in reality it shouldn't have any bearing on ones decision to the leave the formerly known "partnership".

 

[Popeye]

In consideration of the idea that "one leaves alot on the table if you leave" and that we have earned that pay. I look it as the MIP being 1/2 of what they sell it to us as....i.e 2.4 is really a 1.2.... I will always be grateful and fully appreciative of any MIP but never the less the RSU's aren't "my" money or stock so to hell with it. It is just a glass half full or half empty situation in my mind. The RSU's are similarly a figment of ur imagination at least until October. In theory it should keep you in the boat, in reality it shouldn't have any bearing on ones decision to the leave the formerly known "partnership".

How about leaving without 60% of your pension? If you leave a day before you turn 55, your pension is 40% of what it would be if you leave a day later.