Even extended area couriers should be greatly affected. No more 4x10's, and the 4x10 cover drivers will have to be worked into the mix with their own 5 day rt. I know the State of Texas calls 30 hrs or more fulltime. They will probably have to drop the 35hr guarantee, since many, if not most, couriers won't get a full 35.
Gee, Sales promised me a pair of sunglasses for turning in just 4 leads. I don't know if that can be topped !!!!![]()
The 35 hour guarantee in Express DOESN'T mean that FT-ers are guaranteed to actually work 35 hours, it means that they will be paid for 35 hours should their actual hours worked falls below 35 hours AND they don't clock in late or use any sick time during the week in question.
From all indications, there isn't going to be any adjustments to "guarantee" pay. There will be buyouts, early retirements of high progression employees (to enable lower paid Couriers to be brought in), and a gradual shifting of the proportion of Couriers that are FT to PT, towards the PT side (greatly).
The whole point of the question I asked (in regards to need for route training and familiarization needed with technology utilization) was to illustrate that someone could be pulled off the street and work as a package jockey within a months time. In addition, all they they need to be able to do to work sorts is to be able to recognize route numbers then stop ordering numbering on a little yellow tag.
I know when I worked AM operations, trying to be effective on pulling freight off the belt depended VERY heavily on knowing the areas around one's own route, to enable freight to be pulled and placed into the correct truck. Most operations have one experienced Courier pulling freight for two, sometimes three routes - they obviously needed to know the areas those routes ran, and be able to make a determination by just looking at the address (pre-ROADS days) as to which truck the freight goes into.
Well, ROADS eliminated the need for that knowledge. Couriers still need to know how to place their truck into stop order, but with delivery manifesting coming, that need will disappear too.
And if you eliminate the regulations the business community can push further without being "criminal". Exactly what I am saying. But this "job creator" is just a 21st century way of saying "trickle down". We've seen 30 years of it and Fedex has been shaped with it as well. Like what you got? Not gonna get any better down the road.
So at the point Express is strictly an overnight service,
how will they handle the thousands of FTers still here who aren't getting 35hrs a week?
End it as a policy like split pay? Or shell out a lot of money? I can't imagine too many topped out couriers willing to take a buyout if they know they can get 35 hrs worth of pay.
It'll be the 3 year FTers who don't see a future here. Imagine a topped out 46 year old with 5 weeks vacation walking away in this economy. They've taken away so many things. Why not the Guarantee? And that's what they call it.
Last thing you said...any courier, manifest or not, who's halfway competent will still be able after a few months visualize each stop and automatically know what order it should be in. Remains to be seen if a computer can route it better. This is about making it easy to bring in newhires, for union busting or getting rid of old timers. But it won't make a courier better. The human brain is a learning machine. Computers can't learn.
...any courier, manifest or not, who's halfway competent will still be able after a few months visualize each stop and automatically know what order it should be in. Remains to be seen if a computer can route it better. This is about making it easy to bring in newhires, for union busting or getting rid of old timers. But it won't make a courier better. The human brain is a learning machine. Computers can't learn.
with express, it must be hard to put ROADS in use because of certain time deadlines of pickups/ air dropoffs/ b2b deliveries/ etc... how many times have an Express courier has to break the stop order of that ROADS program to meet a pickup/delivery deadline?
Will someone explain why it is bad that oil drilling is expaning on private land? How is that a bad thing? Why is it that a government/private partnership so vital if the private sector is doing fine without it?
You still aren't grasping the scope of the impeding change.
Customers will be shipping their package with "FedEx" - which opco actually does the pickup, linehaul and then delivery will all depend on many factors. FedEx is the brand being sold, NOT Express or Ground or Office. That meeting you had today should've told you this.
Say a customer indicates they want overnight service... The software will look at the destination location, then provide the "best solution" for the customer. If the location is within the capability for Ground to get the package delivered on time, then the customer's package will be routed with Ground and the customer charged Ground rates.
If the shipment is ready before about noon, and the destination is within the service area of Office Cheetah, then the customer's package will be routed through the Cheetah system and Office will move it - at rates lower than Express standard overnight from what I'm hearing.
Third day shipping is going to disappear quite soon from Express - customers will see this change most likely sometime in July or early August from what the talk indicates.
If a customer indicates they need 2nd Day delivery - and Ground is capable of providing that service from start to finish, then the shipment will be routed through Ground. And yes, same day pickups for Ground are coming too - they will have the same capability that Express Couriers currently have. How this changes the contracts between FedEx and the contractors remains to be seen.
This is why I also believe (though I haven't been able to confirm it with my sources) that unified dispatching will be done sometime soon. A system like this simply cannot operate without unified dispatching, just isn't possible.
Only after the other lower cost opcos have been exhausted as possible shipping methods, will Express service be indicated. Express is no longer the default method - it is the method of last resort if the other two opcos cannot get the piece delivered in time.
Within about 2 years or so, the delivery of 2nd Day will be shifted over to Ground to accomplish. This means that the delivery side of Express will become exclusively an overnight affair a couple of years from now. The pickup of volume that will move through the Express line haul network WILL NOT CHANGE (I said this repeatedly over the months/years).
What makes you think there will be "thousands of FTers" still around a few years from now? Just like all change in Express, they will make the replacement of the FT Courier a gradual process, replacing them with entry level Part-timers who can achieve acceptable levels of productivity with the new technology about to be unveiled.
The high progression Couriers will be offered early retirement incentives or buyouts. The remainder will be forced into working split shifts (to get minimum pay as a full-timer, there is the added requirement to work all shifts assigned - failure to do so results in forfeiture of minimum pay guarantee).
None of the change in personnel staffing will occur "overnight" it will be a gradual process of offering either incentives to leave or requirements for those that remain to work "screwy" hours, which will cause a predictable exodus of those who remain (not many full-timers are going to hang around for too long putting in 50 hour weeks and only getting paid 35 hours while spending an average of 2-3 hours a day on forced unpaid break between their AM delivery cycle and running a PM pickup route).
Its ALL full time wage employees who don't have a "future" with Express. That 46 year old Courier is currently used to getting about 50 hours or so on the clock (equivalent to getting paid for 55 hours of work after OT premium). Well, OT is supposed to be disappearing real quick. That is a 27% reduction right off the bat in their gross.
Then in a couple of years, they'll be reduced to working minimums. If they run a delivery route that takes them 30 hours a week to accomplish, Express will GLADLY pay them minimums. This Courier is reduced to getting paid for 35 hours a week when they were previously being paid for 55 - a reduction of 36% in their "pre-change" compensation level.
How many full-timers can hang around in a job that is only going to pay them just under two-thirds of what they were previously making, with absolutely no prospect of getting anything more and needing to be available for "all assigned shifts" to even get that 35 hours of pay? The exodus will be gradual and assured for FedEx. The early retirement and buyouts will start to look real good for these employees. Combine all of this with increased used of discipline to get rid of employees, there will be a slow but deliberate transformation of the hourly workforce of DGO into a predominantly part-time, low paid workforce.
DON'T make the error of assuming that the way things are now are an indicator of how things will be a few years from now - they WILL NOT.
You've completely missed the boat on technology. The computer doesn't need to be as good as a seasoned Courier, it just needs to be GOOD ENOUGH. The efficiency gains won't be in individual Courier productivity, it will be in EXPENSE in getting volume delivered. A part-time new hire Courier which can achieve 85% of the efficiency of a seasoned Courier while only being paid 65% as much, is MUCH MORE EFFICIENT. The "computer" will enable this.
There isn't the need with computerized routing to have a highly "thinking" Courier. Couriers run the same route over and over and over. Their routine is so predictable, that "goals" can be assigned to accomplishing the task. Given the HIGHLY routine nature of Courier work now, computers can step in and do most of the thinking that a thinking Courier currently does. With the need for a thinking Courier eliminated - Couriers that are paid two-thirds as much and think half as much as current Couriers can be brought in a perform the task and achieve increased COST efficiency. FedEx isn't looking for a "better Courier", they are looking for cheap Couriers which can get the job done. Again, look to Ground and you will find your answer.
Of course, computers can learn, only when the operator / dispatcher highlights which areas of the delivery area are 1st priority, ie businesses that close by 5pm, vs residentials that can be delivered at a later time...
"garbage in - garbage out" type of thing. As a cover driver, I can usually visualize each stop in a certain area within a week & suggest a better "trace" to deliver the parcels to reduce send-agains... but only asking the regular driver of that service area why he has his stop order the way it was.
this past saturday, the last 2 stops were at a Walmart (which closes late) and a medical office, which closes @ 18:30... i got to walmart at 19:00 and the medical office would have to wait until Tuesday for their medical supplies
with express, it must be hard to put ROADS in use because of certain time deadlines of pickups/ air dropoffs/ b2b deliveries/ etc... how many times have an Express courier has to break the stop order of that ROADS program to meet a pickup/delivery deadline?
SEE WHAT I MEAN OR DO YOU JUST NOT GET IT?
You've posted here for a few years, that change would never come. You've attempted to convince yourself that nothing was going to happen which could impact your employment, even to the point of attempting to rationalize your faulty thinking with assertions that I was never an Express employee (incorrect) - therefore I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.
Well, it does seem to be the case that I know what the hell I'm talking about. The methods by which FedEx has decided to roll out its transformation of Express have been elusive, but the end goal now is no longer in doubt - even by yourself it seems.
Do you now just begin to GET IT??
Now that the "apocalypse" is slowly unveiling itself at Express. Your various attempts at self-rationalization are being gradually proven incorrect. How are you dealing with it? With even more attempts at supposition and faulty thinking?
Go ahead and rationalize away. Your thought processes have placed you firmly into the position where you currently exist and you have no one to blame but yourself.
For those who are now just beginning to realize that their planned career at Express is most likely going to end abruptly, they have some advance warning to start to make plans to get out.
But one cannot forget, you've already made the decision to ride the sinking ship down to the bottom - so there's absolutely no point in your worrying about it anyway. When the water reaches your neckline, take a deep breath and start your magnificent rationalization process up again. You might just be able to rationalize yourself some gills and make a go of it after all.
Your "exit strategy" was to hold out as long as you could, then book a flight to Central America to find some poor girl to exploit?
What did I miss?
Have you already made your reservation and not told anyone yet?
You keep on rationalizing as to what you've seen in rural Texas (and rural America) and making suppositions that the rest of the country is similar. I know Express operations in non-rural areas (the overwhelming majority of volume is through these areas). Your error is using what you are familiar with and generalizing to the nation as a whole. The US isn't west Texas.
And no, I'm not a union organizer (it would be nice to get paid for the time I spend posting here, but it is solely something I do in spare time). If a union organizer got paid more that I currently make, I'd definitely put in my resume to the IBT and give it a shot. There are maybe 100 readers to this list that aren't UPS employees. The "reach" of this forum is just too damn small (even if I were an organizer) to even bother spending time writing here for someone seriously attempting to organize.
I think organizing IS the best option for Express employees, but I've stated over and over again that this isn't going to happen. It is people such as YOURSELF who are to blame for Express not unionizing - people who though they could "out think" FedEx and place their trust in Fred.
If you have read my posts over the past couple of years, I've put the IBT into an unfavorable light as much as I have attempted to illustrate that unionization is the only possible solution for the hourly employees of Express. The IBT isn't the most optimal solution for Express employees, but it was the preferable solution to what is beginning to happen.
So.. since you are a regular here, make sure to post in about 3 years time as to how many full-time Couriers are currently with Express (compared to mid-2012). In the almost 3 years I've posted here, I've been right more often than wrong - and am being proven right in my calling out the master plan. How about you? How many of your self-serving suppositions have been proven out to be correct?
You state I presume too much about you. I can only presume based on what you have written about yourself - which is enough for me to peg you as a self loathing type that had dreams of making a decent living, but failed miserably due to your poor decision making skills and engages in a healthy amount of self-serving rationalization (bias) to maintain a bit of self-esteem for yourself. I'll stick to that presumption.
Let me do a Ricochet1A style remark...YOU'VE COMPLETELY MISSED THE POINT!! There, I feel better. It's not a bad thing. It circumvented the roadblocks thrown up by Obama's administration. But he's actually trying to take credit for it when it's totally private enterprise. All the oil drilling in North Dakota? Private. South Texas? Private. The environmentalists even tried to get fracking banned. They've been discredited, many of the accusations total lies. If he wants to be pro energy he needs to open up federal land to exploration and drilling. That's not national parks by the way.
I hear that alot. I simply respond, "I'm a Clinton democrat."
On average it's the Republican businessmen that provide most of the jobs. And on average it's those same Republican businessmen who exploit people with those jobs. But it's a huge leap from taking advantage of everything available under the law and committing criminal acts. The ones who make that leap usually get caught. I want to see people back to work, not pie-in-the-sky liberal theories about the way things ought to be. Alot of regulations that businessmen chafe at were thrown on them by the current administration. Take oil drilling. Obama claims more drilling is happening under his administration than ever before. He conveniently leaves out that all this new drilling is on private land. He stopped all drilling on Federal lands shortly after taking office. He has also attacked coal mining and stood in the way of new refineries, pipelines, and nuclear reactors. We need a business friendly government and I'd gladly take a Democrat one if we could find one that doesn't gather votes by promising goodies to ever constituency and spends like maniacs. The single biggest threat to our Social Security is spending so much that it all comes crashing down.