It's a whole hell of a lot of speculation.
For fun, let's compare Apple to UPS. Based on Market cap value, Apple is "worth" 10X more than UPS. But is it really when you look at all the tangible value?
Apple's biggest source of revenue is a cell phone. The factories that build most Apple products are contracted, mostly Foxconn. Apple doesn't even own the factories (most anyway). There are Apple stores, but pretty spread out. There isn't a large public workforce like a UPS or Walmart. They don't have a massive fleet of vehicles like UPS. UPS owns thousands of big buildings. An airline too.
What would Apple have to sell off if their products tanked in popularity (as so many brands have throughout history)? Not 100's of billions in tangible assets.
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It's not speculation. It's huge profits that drives Apple's valuation. Now let's compare these numbers with UPS or any business for that matter.
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2015/07/21Apple-Reports-Record-Third-Quarter-Results.html
iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac & App Store Drive Revenue Growth of 33%
CUPERTINO, California — July 21, 2015 — Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2015 third quarter ended June 27, 2015. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $49.6 billion and quarterly net profit of $10.7 billion, or $1.85 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $37.4 billion and net profit of $7.7 billion, or $1.28 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 39.7 percent compared to 39.4 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 64 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
The growth was fueled by record third quarter sales of iPhone® and Mac®, all-time record revenue from services and the successful launch of Apple Watch™.
“We had an amazing quarter, with iPhone revenue up 59 percent over last year, strong sales of Mac, all-time record revenue from services, driven by the App Store, and a great start for Apple Watch,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “The excitement for Apple Music has been incredible, and we’re looking forward to releasing iOS 9, OS X El Capitan and watchOS 2 to customers in the fall.”
“In the third quarter our year-over-year growth rate accelerated from the first half of fiscal 2015, with revenue up 33 percent and earnings per share up 45 percent,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO. “We generated very strong operating cash flow of $15 billion, and we returned over $13 billion to shareholders through our capital return program.”
Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2015 fourth quarter:revenue between $49 billion and $51 billiongross margin between 38.5 percent and 39.5 percentoperating expenses between $5.85 billion and $5.95 billionother income/(expense) of $400 milliontax rate of 26.3 percent