I pointed out recently that there wasn't a lot of new drilling as claimed here. The major oil companies have thousands of capped wells that they reopened after prices rose to take advantage of the high prices. Where we're getting hurt is closing down all Federal lands to exploration and drilling that is done by primarily small oil companies. And the Bakken oil field in North Dakota and Montana is a prime example of a newer huge oil field being discovered. Plus the advent of tracking has made it possible to go after oil in already played out oilfields that couldn't be gotten to with the older technology. As is there's over 200 years worth of oil in the U.S. at present usage and that doesn't count any oil yet to be discovered.
Now where did you get this 200 years number? Oh if you counted in the easy to strip mine but expensive to refine and limited use tar sands and the few smaller and expensive to develop fields remaining and combined with severe conservation you might get close....but at what price per barrel? Oh you might get close to 200 years....at what $200 a barrel?
After the collapse of the oil market during COVID where oil price was $-35 a barrel....that's right NEGATIVE 35 bucks a barrel the entire industry agreed to better supply management. Better forecasting in demand trends creating a better balance.
The ongoing increase in both Brent and WTI has NOTHING to do with opening federal land drilling. You can open up every single acre of federal lands and it won't mean a thing if what's there cannot be located and developed profitably.
According to the EIA global demand will increase by 1.4 million barrels a day both this year and next and WTI will average $82 a barrel next year and supplies will remain tight....HOWEVER....Mandated OPEC supply cuts among members will expire that may result a slight drawback but still within OPEC's desired price line.