You wont see gas get over 3 bucks for years.
I wouldn't go so far as to say that. With all the recent influx of money into the economy and more sure to come, at some point this could create inflation pressures, some suggest hyper-inflation, and that $3 a gallon will look cheap. Recently, I paid under $2 a gallon and I thought I had won the lottery.
For someone who use to walk the local highway picking up pop bottles and getting the deposit money to buy $.29 cent a gallon gasoline for his mini-bike, it seems almost unthinkable. But since the mid/late 60's and now, what is the real driving factor behind why gas is not $.29 a gallon but rather around $2 a gallon? You know the answer, it's inflation and what is the major factor on inflation? The printing of money and whose public policy dictates that occurance? Gov't! Gov't economic intervention.
BTW: Damn litter laws killed a goldmine of a business for us back in the day! I learned early to hate gov't intervention! LMAO!!!!!
Also keep this thought in mine as well. Federal debt is huge (no argument) and seems to just grow and grow with recent economic perils. Many people justify debt by gauging against GDP, which is a rather generally accepted practice, but here's where I see problems with that and making the Under $3 gas prediction as well.
Inflation itself actually changes the ratio of debt to GDP to a more favorable outlook. If a lender looks at you for the purpose of a loan (like they did in the good ole' days
) , one major factor is the ratio of income (your GDP if you will) to your total debt. If this factor is out of balance to the debt side, no loan. However, if you get a raise (income inflation if you will) the ratio will change for the good and the loan justified using this factor because the worth (GDP) to debt ratio is good in this respect. Now once the loan is secured, the ratio will change but it will be from the debt side and thus you either pay down the dbt or inflate the income side to adjust the ratio to again a more favorable comparison.
2 ways for gov't to get a raise.
1) the most obvious way is to raise taxes but that has implecations at election time, or did anyway. Both political parties however have seemed in years past to avoid this mechainsm.
2) The most evil and diabolical method of all taxation, the hidden tax known as inflation.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul191.html This method also monetizes our children's future by capitalizing
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalize.asp debt under the illusion of national investment. Since Keynesian economics came to full fruit in the 20th century under central banking, this has been the preferred method for gov't to give itself a raise. This mechanism of inflating the money supply devalues the actual worth of the individual fiat currency in circulation or in other words, to maintain the cost of goods and services along with wages thus increases. As a result, GDP does go up but it's an inllationary illusion but in fairness, another help to GDP in recent years has been the technological advancement of business efficency. This technological feat does have limits and now it seems gov't action in relation to economic intervention has even outpaced it.
Some time ago as oil was rocketing up, the Saudi Royals commented on spector of what was happening and I've remembered those comments since they were made. They stated that the current (at this time) oil market was overdriven and that honest, rational pricing of oil using time tested means shows oil a barrel should be around $60 to $70 a barrel. Now this was said when oil was around $100 to $120 on the way up. Now we have oil at the $60 a barrel mark and pressures are to the downside more than up over global recession concerns as others rightly pointed out. As a result, there has been some talk of cutting oil output but so far we're moving along. However, as inflated money supplies start to factor in once global economies start to roll again, I'm not sure the balance can be maintained at that price level. Once monetary inflation steps in, the only way for oil to maintain a $60 a barrel price is to increase oil output production and there's no guarantee that will happen either.
I like the idea of not seeing $3 a gallon gas anymore or for a longtime but keynesian economics that we've embraced to the hilt along with economic historical fact and practice just suggest to make that kind of statement at this time is not the wise thing to do although emotionally it appeals. As to those who use GDP as a means to justify an economic summation, I agree on it's face it seems to win the day but once you begin to look at all factors (items they hope you won't look at) IMO, it just doesn't paint as rosey a picture.
I don't believe Bush destroyed the planet nor do I believe Obama will. Washington is it's own beast no matter who sits at the head table. I'm not convinced at this point Obama will confiscate all the 401k's as much fun as it is to try and paint that picture. It's not impossible once the snowball starts rolling downhill but for now it would be political suicide IMO. I do believe however that over the course of the last 100 to 150 years, (if not longer) there has been a slow detoriating process to all freedoms and liberties including economic freedom and I don't see that abating in any way no matter who won the most recent election. It can be fun playing the games of "cults of personalities" which we play when it comes to politics but the truth is, we'll get nowhere other than worse off if at some point we don't walk out of the WWE wrestling arena and into the stark night of reality and face the real world of what lay in front of us!
JMO.
BTW TOS: I hope you are right about the $3 a gallon prediction but I have to ask myself in the end, to get it, what will it ultimately cost me and especially my kids. You guys now have all the cards in your deck so it put up or shut up time now. You even have it better on the executive and legislative side than the republicans ever had. The ball's in your court now so it's all on you guys going forward. I know this won't sit well with many here and I say it a bit tongue in cheek but looking at all the neo-con lite Clinton retreads Obama is bringing in, I'm actually longing for an Obama who would have brought in Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers.
The republican party has given you a gift and is no longer a real factor on the national scene. Even now the process of jettisoning the Bush era has begun as this example from National Review doth suggest.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjRmYmIzZTk3NTU1M2VjYWY3N2E3YmY1ZmY3MzI0Mzk=
It's now a wide open field for you guys so don't muck it up!
because like the snake that I am, you know I'm waiting in the weeds to bite!