Polling Methodologies Insight

[Old Man Jingles]

You back on the weed

At least I know how to correctly reply to a post and "No".

 

[Old Man Jingles]

 

[Old Man Jingles]

 

[Old Man Jingles]

 

[Old Man Jingles]

 

[Old Man Jingles]

 

[Old Man Jingles]

 

[DriveInDriveOut]

So Trafalgar Group has FL, NC, MI, PA, and AZ going to President Trump.....
That's would be a blowout.

 

[rod]

I just can't imagine all the butt hurt crying that is going to be going on if Donald wins again. As it is now even my own daughter barely speaks to me because of a few political jokes favoring Trump I posted on Facebook. I've got a sister-in-law who hates me as far as I know for the same reason. My wife has begged me not to post anything else ---and I haven't for a long while. " If" Trump wins I'm going to have a hard time reconnecting with the family. Personally I hate this election. The last time with Hilary and Trump running a person ended up voting against someone instead of for someone. It's even worse this year with what we have to choose from.

 

[Old Man Jingles]

So Trafalgar Group has FL, NC, MI, PA, and AZ going to President Trump.....
That's would be a blowout.

These are the 6 close states.
Trump thinks they have a lock on AZ, OH, FL & GA.
The margin of error is 3% on Trafalgar polls.
It's going to be tight, tight, tight in PA, WI and MI.
Either Trump or Biden could win all 6 states

DemWits are on it this time!
RePugs are on them like last time.

 

[Old Man Jingles]

Retiree Electioneering

 

[zubenelgenubi]

At least I know how to correctly reply to a post and "No".

Not back on it. Still on it.

 

[zubenelgenubi]

The Primary Model

primary model is a scientific model of forecasting election results. The Primary Model forecasts presidential elections with great accuracy. Author of The Primary Model, Helmut Norpoth. Political Scientist and Professor at Stony Brook University.

primarymodel.com

 

[Old Man Jingles]

DemWits are on it this time!
RePugs are on them like last time.

Not back on it. Still on it.

If you insist!

 

[Old Man Jingles]

The Primary Model

primary model is a scientific model of forecasting election results. The Primary Model forecasts presidential elections with great accuracy. Author of The Primary Model, Helmut Norpoth. Political Scientist and Professor at Stony Brook University.

primarymodel.com

I've looked at that in the past and I just didn't feel right about it.
It could be I didn't understand all the variables and weighting.

 

[Old Man Jingles]

View attachment 315656

Interesting that the "Undecided" are at 1% in Pennsylvania.
Trump with a less than 1% lead and a Margin Error of 2.8%.
Trump seems to have the Big Mo so looking good for Trump but definitely uncertain.

 

[floridays]

Interesting that the "Undecided" are at 1% in Pennsylvania.
Trump with a less than 1% lead and a Margin Error of 2.8%.
Trump seems to have the Big Mo so looking good for Trump but definitely uncertain.

Exactly how could someone be undecided at this point?

If I were king their votes would be incinerated when dealt.

I'm sorry, I don't want a non committal, flighty person dictating the course of this nation.

Set me straight,
I'm accepting argument.

 

[zubenelgenubi]

I've looked at that in the past and I just didn't feel right about it.
It could be I didn't understand all the variables and weighting.

My understanding is that it comes down to who did the strongest in the primaries. It makes sense considering incumbents tend to win more often. When you have so many potentials that people feel strongly about, and their guy didn't win the primary, it can split up a party's votes. Most probably going independent. When everyone is on board early with a single candidate, the party is more likely to see fidelity among their voters. In this case I have been hearing quite a bit about regular people leaving the Democratic party because they realize that the entire party, not just certain members, does not serve the public's interest at all anymore.

Like everyone else, I'd like to believe my read of the situation is accurate, and I'd tend to say that Trump is going to win again. But I also felt pretty certain Clinton was going to win last time. I also would have sworn Trump was only running and doing his antics to ensure a Clinton win, so who knows?

 

[Old Man Jingles]

I just can't imagine all the butt hurt crying that is going to be going on if Donald wins again.

Maybe a couple of the most loathsome LibTurds will just leave and never be heard from again!

But then I made big deal on leaving and then came back within a month or so.

There is that!

 

[Old Man Jingles]

My understanding is that it comes down to who did the strongest in the primaries. It makes sense considering incumbents tend to win more often. When you have so many potentials that people feel strongly about, and their guy didn't win the primary, it can split up a party's votes. Most probably going independent. When everyone is on board early with a single candidate, the party is more likely to see fidelity among their voters. In this case I have been hearing quite a bit about regular people leaving the Democratic party because they realize that the entire party, not just certain members, does not serve the public's interest at all anymore.

Like everyone else, I'd like to believe my read of the situation is accurate, and I'd tend to say that Trump is going to win again. But I also felt pretty certain Clinton was going to win last time. I also would have sworn Trump was only running and doing his antics to ensure a Clinton win, so who knows?

Honestly, I never even got past the introduction part.
I guess I was thinking of "Ehhh ... just not interested!" when I posted what I did.