Goldman Sachs economists found little evidence yet that the cessation of benefits across a group of mostly Republican-led states was having much impact on labor markets.
"We find only a marginal effect" of the benefit reductions on labor supply and employment, wrote Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "As such, benefits discontinuation may end up doing more bad on the personal income ledger than good on the employment ledger of the economy."
Bank of America economists wrote last week, the experiences in states ending benefits early "suggest more generous benefits did not have a strong negative impact on employment ... Labor constraints could persist beyond the fall" when the benefits expire nationally.