What is the REAL reason negotiations have stalled?

[UPSER1987]

And it's sad that they blame on part timers

These are the same same people that think they can be ceo and run a company. Can’t even run their own finances lol

 

[Just A UPS Guy]

The sectors are certainly different and the shipping business model is certainly far more transparent than a company that was essentially just buying and selling the price of energy, but that by itself is no guarantee that the boardroom doesn't have a broader agenda that's beholden to an ideology that runs contrary to the stated goals of the union it has grown accustomed to dealing with from a position of strength.

No company in ALEC wants to come out of a negotiation with it's union emerging stronger. I wouldn't put it past the board in Atlanta to lose a little if they thought the union lost far more. This "TA" is that in name only at this point and the company could just as easily withdraw all of it a week into a work stoppage if they thought there was a good enough chance that O'Brien saw an exodus of UPS hourlies after all the gains they assumed were money in the bank just weeks prior were suddenly gone like a mirage in the desert.

I think we need to be prepared for all possibilities and not just "Eventually the company will yield to hourlies, the general public, big institutional investors, etc." For many years, the largest holder of shares was the Casey Foundation, an organization sharing the last name of the company's founder. When that foundation took issue with UPS's growing role in ALEC, it's not as if the company altered it's course even in the slightest. If the C-suite doesn't care what the largest shareholder thinks, then they might not care what anybody outside that isolated insular circle thinks.

Yeah, but I feel the company understands that for the the vast majority of time, the economy and circumstances favor them at negotiating time. I'm sure they realize that our leverage this time around, at least the extent of it, is the anomaly. Black Rock, Vanguard, etc. have too much riding on this in an economy that's essentially a house of cards. I just don't see how they could "want" this to happen in order to better the long-term. Beyond that, I don't think it really would.

 

[Undertow]

UPS delivers too much to fail right now so the company isn’t going anywhere. I don’t know if we are comparing apples to oranges with those situations and examples but I agree that the c-suite’s level of risk is minimal compared to the streets but how much we deliver cannot just be absorbed by the existing industry players. You can over think situations.

Of course the void couldn't be filled by existing competition, which would give that much more motivation to the board to pursue a scorched earth strategy in attempting to weaken a union they spent decades trying to kneecap from every angle. If they know FedEx is a mess without us walking, then odds are they'd collapse pretty quickly if hit with a surge and a huge portion of customers return once the impasse was over. There's no long term downside to the board. They gobble up shares on the cheap and their grandkids live on the dividends while 22.4's face layoffs for months at a time while the company gets to reduce capital expenditures due to a double digit percentage reduction in volume.

I'm not saying it's a given, or even "likely" at this stage but I can't see any evidence that would rule it out. It's just as possible as anybother scenario I've seen floated here. I can remember 99% of both other drivers and management insisting at this point in '97 that there was just no way we'd ever see a strike with many providing the near exact same explanation as yours. Turned out a strike indeed happened and the working conditions became even worse after than before.

 

[2Down2Many2Go]

Blame what on PTers?

Blame them for not voting, when most of the full-time don't vote/ know what they're voting on.

 

[Undertow]

Yeah, but I feel the company understands that for the the vast majority of time, the economy and circumstances favor them at negotiating time. I'm sure they realize that our leverage this time around, at least the extent of it, is the anomaly. Black Rock, Vanguard, etc. have too much riding on this in an economy that's essentially a house of cards. I just don't see how they could "want" this to happen in order to better the long-term. Beyond that, I don't think it really would.

Certainly sound reasoning and attempts to paint a portrait of the delivery guy wearing Browns as a greedy lazy freeloader back in '97 didn't go over well with the public. But O'Brien hasn't been shy about framing this negotiation as just the first battle in a bigger war and places like Black Rock and Vanguard have stakes in companies that they probably wouldn't be to excited about finding out have potential exposure to seeing good portions of it's labor forces being open to union representation. Expecting some big institutional investors to somehow come in and save the boardroom from itself in the 9th inning just doesn't seem anywhere near a failsafe to me. The Deepwater Horizon had a blowout preventer and it's presence probably made people feel safer right up until the point it was needed to prevent a disaster.

How much does the board really care about the customers? They've known ORION has been and still is a detriment to service for over 10 years now yet it's still here. The 1-800 number call centers have been the chief complaint among my customers for perhaps even longer than that and yet there's been no improvement on that front either. I don't think it's all that clear there's any line upper management won't cross in an attempt to have the last word.

 

[Just A UPS Guy]

Certainly sound reasoning and attempts to paint a portrait of the delivery guy wearing Browns as a greedy lazy freeloader back in '97 didn't go over well with the public. But O'Brien hasn't been shy about framing this negotiation as just the first battle in a bigger war and places like Black Rock and Vanguard have stakes in companies that they probably wouldn't be to excited about finding out have potential exposure to seeing good portions of it's labor forces being open to union representation. Expecting some big institutional investors to somehow come in and save the boardroom from itself in the 9th inning just doesn't seem anywhere near a failsafe to me. The Deepwater Horizon had a blowout preventer and it's presence probably made people feel safer right up until the point it was needed to prevent a disaster.

How much does the board really care about the customers? They've known ORION has been and still is a detriment to service for over 10 years now yet it's still here. The 1-800 number call centers have been the chief complaint among my customers for perhaps even longer than that and yet there's been no improvement on that front either. I don't think it's all that clear there's any line upper management won't cross in an attempt to have the last word.

I'm definitely not saying it's out of the realm of possibility, but it sounds like a big headache when considering the legal parameters and, most likely, litigation for what would essentially be sabotage.

Still, definitely plausible.

 

[Karma...]

probably need the time to cook the books ha ha....dont fall for it....there are many issues surrounding this contract..amazon, friend. d.x. egos....campaign promises............the teamsters are actually a communistic union due to the split between closed shop and r.t.w states........the guild unions are history......

 

[Pullman Brown]

Of course the void couldn't be filled by existing competition, which would give that much more motivation to the board to pursue a scorched earth strategy in attempting to weaken a union they spent decades trying to kneecap from every angle. If they know FedEx is a mess without us walking, then odds are they'd collapse pretty quickly if hit with a surge and a huge portion of customers return once the impasse was over. There's no long term downside to the board. They gobble up shares on the cheap and their grandkids live on the dividends while 22.4's face layoffs for months at a time while the company gets to reduce capital expenditures due to a double digit percentage reduction in volume.

I'm not saying it's a given, or even "likely" at this stage but I can't see any evidence that would rule it out. It's just as possible as anybother scenario I've seen floated here. I can remember 99% of both other drivers and management insisting at this point in '97 that there was just no way we'd ever see a strike with many providing the near exact same explanation as yours. Turned out a strike indeed happened and the working conditions became even worse after than before.

Never said there wouldn’t be a strike and there most definitely will be more harassment to push for more production etc.. I don’t care what they agree upon with jobs but there could be less jobs created. You just haven’t convinced me of your OP and your premise for the earnings date decision.

 

[Karma...]

the flip side is that if there is a strike ups can renegotiate including all the items previously agreed upon...back to step one negotiations.......I can see carol doing that........I dont want a strike but if there is one I favor starting from scratch ....it's the sensible decision

 

[Undertow]

Never said there wouldn’t be a strike and there most definitely will be more harassment to push for more production etc.. I don’t care what they agree upon with jobs but there could be less jobs created. You just haven’t convinced me of your OP and your premise for decision.

I didn't attempt to imply you did state there wouldn't be a strike. I'm merely correlating the similarity between the general attitude among hourlies now at this point compared to mid July of '97. We were all being told not to say anything to alarm customers and that prior contracts often weren't settled until just before the current agreement expired. There's many here that believe (or perhaps hope) that it can't or won't come to that this time. They shouldn't kid themselves by thinking some hedge fund or big institutional investor can simply place a phone call to company headquarters and convince the board to suddenly change course.

As for my OP or premise, I see it as every bit as possible as anything else I've read being floated here. The company is more committed to ALEC than it is the customer or it's workforce, of which a majority of it they have treated as disposable for many contracts in a row dating back decades. It's attempted to weaken worker protections, attempts to unionize for the sake of collective bargaining over and over again in states from coast to coast from a distance. I don't know why anybody would dismiss the possibility of it attempting to inflict harm on one directly if they thought it had a 50/50 chance at succeeding.

 

[Pullman Brown]

I didn't attempt to imply you did state there wouldn't be a strike. I'm merely correlating the similarity between the general attitude among hourlies now at this point compared to mid July of '97. We were all being told not to say anything to alarm customers and that prior contracts often weren't settled until just before the current agreement expired. There's many here that believe (or perhaps hope) that it can't or won't come to that this time. They shouldn't kid themselves by thinking some hedge fund or big institutional investor can simply place a phone call to company headquarters and convince the board to suddenly change course.

As for my OP or premise, I see it as every bit as possible as anything else I've read being floated here. The company is more committed to ALEC than it is the customer or it's workforce, of which a majority of it they have treated as disposable for many contracts in a row dating back decades. It's attempted to weaken worker protections, attempts to unionize for the sake of collective bargaining over and over again in states from coast to coast from a distance. I don't know why anybody would dismiss the possibility of it attempting to inflict harm on one directly if they thought it had a 50/50 chance at succeeding.

Are you in management? How do you know they are this committed to ALEC? Any hard evidence you can provide to back this up?

 

[Undertow]

I'm definitely not saying it's out of the realm of possibility, but it sounds like a big headache when considering the legal parameters and, most likely, litigation for what would essentially be sabotage.

Still, definitely plausible.

It would be a huge headache for many and not just those of us directly involved. The company might directly move 6% of GDP, which is big just on it's own, bit once a bunch of chips and parts don't arrive at the factories or assembly lines, perhaps the percentage of GDP adversely affected reaches 20%? Perhaps more? No doubt the repercussions would reach far and wide.

But unless a decent percentage of companies that are in ALEC suffer like the rest of the country would if that scenario plays out, I'm not convinced UPS would care especially if they have a good idea that a large portion of the volume really has nowhere else to go. I've seen plenty of people insist they'd never fly with United ever again when a couple of goons forcibly removed a passenger from his seat to make room for dead-headers but once they really focused on what other choices were available, they quickly reversed course. Same with the 737 Max. Once the alternatives became clear, it didn't look so bad once all the bad press faded in the rear view mirror.

The company will survive a strike even if a majority of the public hates it for allowing one to happen. If it thinks there's a chance for it to have far more control over employees for as much as a generation to come in exchange for inflicting something between uncertainty to chaos on the present economy from now until Christmas, it might see that as an acceptable risk for a reward they covet.

 

[Karma...]

if there is a strike there will be many people crossing the picket lines to feed their families.......during the 90's strike I pulled a route and the driver would meet up with me on area and we would both deliver....didnt want to strand his customers......when we got back to regular work you can be sure that he and others like him got preferential treatment .......the ones who were idiots on the line were videotaped, identified and when they came back never got any breaks....such is justice or revenge...fair is fair....

 

[Undertow]

Are you in management? How do you know they are this committed to ALEC? Any hard evidence you can provide to back this up?

How many managers show up to these boards stating how ORION doesn't work and is a money drain?

Anybody can do a Google search on ALEC and find out pretty quickly that UPS steadfastly remains a member despite stated concerns from the Casey Foundation regarding it's involvement in the group. Any kind of legislation introduced in any statehouse that involves weakening worker protections has the organization's fingerprints on it and the company is pretty clearly on board with that.

How many managers would come here attempting to shed light on something such as that?

 

[nWo]

Negotiations have stalled because your mom's a ho

 

[Pullman Brown]

How many managers show up to these boards stating how ORION doesn't work and is a money drain?

Anybody can do a Google search on ALEC and find out pretty quickly that UPS steadfastly remains a member despite stated concerns from the Casey Foundation regarding it's involvement in the group. Any kind of legislation introduced in any statehouse that involves weakening worker protections has the organization's fingerprints on it and the company is pretty clearly on board with that.

How many managers would come here attempting to shed light on something such as that?

1. No idea

2. Gotcha

3. No idea

 

[Undertow]

I had to explain to a 29-year driver how his PT pension credits work in our system. He thought he had three years to go...he could've left two years ago.

Lol! Did he retire right on the spot when you alerted him to that?

 

[Thebrownblob]

if there is a strike there will be many people crossing the picket lines to feed their families.......during the 90's strike I pulled a route and the driver would meet up with me on area and we would both deliver....didnt want to strand his customers......when we got back to regular work you can be sure that he and others like him got preferential treatment .......the ones who were idiots on the line were videotaped, identified and when they came back never got any breaks....such is justice or revenge...fair is fair....

What’s strike you talking about? You sound like a dummy making up stories.

 

[Thebrownblob]

probably need the time to cook the books ha ha....dont fall for it....there are many issues surrounding this contract..amazon, friend. d.x. egos....campaign promises............the teamsters are actually a communistic union due to the split between closed shop and r.t.w states........the guild unions are history......

You Watch too many movies. Might have rotted your brain.

 

[DriveInDriveOut]

if there is a strike there will be many people crossing the picket lines to feed their families.......during the 90's strike I pulled a route and the driver would meet up with me on area and we would both deliver....didnt want to strand his customers......when we got back to regular work you can be sure that he and others like him got preferential treatment .......the ones who were idiots on the line were videotaped, identified and when they came back never got any breaks....such is justice or revenge...fair is fair....