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oldngray

nowhere special
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FrigidFTSup

Resident Suit
On second thought, they were wrong with the direction and the guessing the Category in different locations. Then again, as I said, they're guessing from what information they have.
I don't think people appreciate the complexity of forecasting. The computers they use to run the models are among the biggest and most powerful in the world, but it still takes 4 hours for it to spit out results.

Its a no win for the forecasters. Underestimate and people die, overestimate and people bitch.
 

Brownslave688

You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
I don't think people appreciate the complexity of forecasting. The computers they use to run the models are among the biggest and most powerful in the world, but it still takes 4 hours for it to spit out results.

Its a no win for the forecasters. Underestimate and people die, overestimate and people bitch.
And a hurricane moves at under 20 mph often. The slightest wobble changes a ton when you're moving thousands of miles at 20 mph
 

oldngray

nowhere special
I don't think people appreciate the complexity of forecasting. The computers they use to run the models are among the biggest and most powerful in the world, but it still takes 4 hours for it to spit out results.

Its a no win for the forecasters. Underestimate and people die, overestimate and people bitch.

Which is why there is a built in bias to be more pessimistic. The mindset is that its better to piss off people with gloom and doom than to underestimate.

The problem is people start to discount constant chicken little predictions.
 

FrigidFTSup

Resident Suit
And a hurricane moves at under 20 mph often. The slightest wobble changes a ton when you're moving thousands of miles at 20 mph
The problem is people think that a 5 day forecast should be 100% accurate, which it isn't. The models are really designed to be 90% accurate to 3 days.

Not to mention people see the cone and think it's going right down the middle. That is the area where the eye wall can travel over the forecast period
 
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