You'll be okayHow about a open window in a skyscraper...
dow jones
- Thread starter Jkloc420
- Start date
Up In Smoke
Well-Known Member
Capital was cheap for more than a decade and companies just refinanced their debt over and over and over. The free money train has been stopped and it's time for these over leveraged companies to get their balance sheets in order. The average S&P price to earnings multiple has always been around 15. Over the last 6 years that multiple grew to over 23 times forward earnings and the companies were over valued against historical levels. Prices had to come down and companies have to clean up their cash flow issues. 2022 is a rebalancing and positive cash flow year.
Jkloc420
Do you need an air compressor or tire gauge
We r most likly in a recession right now
Up In Smoke
Well-Known Member
Doesn't fit the criteria yet. Companies are still adding jobs monthly and the consumer spending is still very strong. Short term interest hikes will curb some spending, but only those living paycheck to paycheck. We own businesses in the mortgage industry and the market is still extremely hot. When you see airlines canceling 500 plus flights a day and offering $1000 vouchers, you know travel demand is still high.
Is the American Stock Market Overvalued?
This page reports daily on a valuation model of the US stock market.
www.estimite.com
Jkloc420
Do you need an air compressor or tire gauge
Do you know what the definition of a recession is, two quarters of negative gdp, last quarter was -1.6 and this quarter is projected to be -1.0
Up In Smoke
Well-Known Member
Exactly. The overwhelming opinion of S&P 500 CEOs is that their businesses will see a 8-10% revenue growth for fiscal year 2022. In the same breath, they state concerns about increased labor costs and the effect it will have on their bottom lines. Companies are still buying back stock and raising dividends. Haven't seen any companies selling stock to raise money to this point. Our economy is very strong despite the inflationary issues.Is the American Stock Market Overvalued?
This page reports daily on a valuation model of the US stock market.
For now. People are eventually going to run out of money if the prices don't come down
Jkloc420
Do you need an air compressor or tire gauge
Gdp was -1.6 last quarter lol
UnionStrong
Sorry, but I don’t care anymore.
Even the fed is predicting 0.0 this quarter
Jkloc420
Do you need an air compressor or tire gauge
It will be negative unless they cook the books
That might be overestimating it.
Just like the feds didn't raise interest rate last year so to not make Biden look bad
Up In Smoke
Well-Known Member
That's only one of a dozen indicators. Rising unemployment, weak consumer demand, inverted yield curve, constricted monetary supply and inventories all play a part.
UnionStrong
Sorry, but I don’t care anymore.
This is not a normal recession.
UnionStrong
Sorry, but I don’t care anymore.
Getting there.
Jkloc420
Do you need an air compressor or tire gauge
What is the definition of a recession, there r different types of recession
If they don't get the food and energy prices under control it's going to get really bad.
UnionStrong
Sorry, but I don’t care anymore.
If fuel keeps rising and we have food shortages, it will be a death spiral
Up In Smoke
Well-Known Member
GDP= Consumer spending + Business Investment + Government spending + Net exports. Consumer spending is up, business investment is flat, government spending is down as is net exports (China was closed).
