We are to the point of market saturation. Anything we gain will be offset with those switching to digital methods.
Here's how I see it playing out:
1) Express loses RLA protection. They say "to hell with it" and then absorb ground into Express. Allow the Ground employees to become Express to handle the new influx of routes.
2) Status Quo.
3) Express turns into "FedEx Feeder Network", keeps FO a ramp service, and then CTVs all freight to FedEx Orange, friend/K/A Ground. This is after FedEx can figure out how to control contractors even more in light of new deregulation due to Trump.
4) The XS shiftover to Ground. Least plausible as
@MAKAVELI said... as FXE has enough routes that spend 100 miles driving delivering 10 packages. They dont need more.
Express growth will have to be international. The model prices express out of much of the growth in ecommerce. Shippers can't offer free shipping and pay express prices without massive discounts.
Shippers are already getting discounts that rival the prices that ground can offer. Why do you think we have so much XS?