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UPS is one of nine Triple - A rated companies in America
In 1979, there were 61 American companies earning a top-level AAA credit rating. Ten years ago, there were 21. Today, there are only nine, and UPS is one of them.
The decline in triple-A-rated companies is one of the most obvious -- though hardly the most worrisome -- sign of a widespread decline in credit quality.
"Corporate America has become more risky," says James Van Horne, a finance professor at Stanford's Graduate School of Business. "The triple-A decline is a result of the decay of credit ratings in general."
Credit ratings estimate a company's ability to repay its debt. Companies with higher credit ratings can generally borrow money more cheaply than companies with lower ratings.
Many factors determine a company's credit rating; two main ones are how many times its cash flow covers its interest payments and the consistency of cash flows.
The bankruptcies of Enron, Kmart, Global Crossing, and others are refocusing attention on credit ratings and balance sheets.
"We've always focused on the balance sheet. In this environment, we've been even more focused," says Scott Glasser, co-manager of the Smith Barney Appreciation fund.
Glasser's top 10 holdings include five AAA-rated companies: Berkshire Hathaway, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, Pfizer and American International Group.
The other four AAA-rated companies (excluding government-backed companies such as Fannie Mae) are Bristol-Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, Merck and United Parcel Service.
To keep a triple-A rating, a company needs to retain a large amount of cash that might be used for other investments that could generate a higher return.
Companies must also keep their ratio of debt to stockholders' equity low. But debt -- in moderation -- is a cheaper form of financing than stock, because interest payments are tax deductible. Dividends paid to stockholders are not.
The "turning point" will be when the ratio of downgrades to upgrades starts to fall. "If the ratio goes from 5-1 to 2-1, that would be a very positive change," Economist Jon Lonski says, predicting that could happen "as early as the third quarter of this year."
In the meantime, Smith Barney's Glasser says he's sticking with high-rated companies. "When times are tough, companies with number one market positions and strong balance sheets can extend their market share," he says.
In 1979, there were 61 American companies earning a top-level AAA credit rating. Ten years ago, there were 21. Today, there are only nine, and UPS is one of them.
The decline in triple-A-rated companies is one of the most obvious -- though hardly the most worrisome -- sign of a widespread decline in credit quality.
"Corporate America has become more risky," says James Van Horne, a finance professor at Stanford's Graduate School of Business. "The triple-A decline is a result of the decay of credit ratings in general."
Credit ratings estimate a company's ability to repay its debt. Companies with higher credit ratings can generally borrow money more cheaply than companies with lower ratings.
Many factors determine a company's credit rating; two main ones are how many times its cash flow covers its interest payments and the consistency of cash flows.
The bankruptcies of Enron, Kmart, Global Crossing, and others are refocusing attention on credit ratings and balance sheets.
"We've always focused on the balance sheet. In this environment, we've been even more focused," says Scott Glasser, co-manager of the Smith Barney Appreciation fund.
Glasser's top 10 holdings include five AAA-rated companies: Berkshire Hathaway, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, Pfizer and American International Group.
The other four AAA-rated companies (excluding government-backed companies such as Fannie Mae) are Bristol-Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, Merck and United Parcel Service.
To keep a triple-A rating, a company needs to retain a large amount of cash that might be used for other investments that could generate a higher return.
Companies must also keep their ratio of debt to stockholders' equity low. But debt -- in moderation -- is a cheaper form of financing than stock, because interest payments are tax deductible. Dividends paid to stockholders are not.
The "turning point" will be when the ratio of downgrades to upgrades starts to fall. "If the ratio goes from 5-1 to 2-1, that would be a very positive change," Economist Jon Lonski says, predicting that could happen "as early as the third quarter of this year."
In the meantime, Smith Barney's Glasser says he's sticking with high-rated companies. "When times are tough, companies with number one market positions and strong balance sheets can extend their market share," he says.