brown_trousers;
Thanks for the post! It was a good one.
No doubt I do have a bit of an anti-union bias, at least in terms of how they function here in the U.S. today. Still, even taking that into consideration I can't recall too many (what I would term) successful strikes during the last few years. As I've somewhat documented, I don't think one can term even the Teamsters '97 strike against UPS a success in light of (1) the basis of which it was terminated (i.e. - the union "blinked", and eventually UPS withdrew from the Central States trust anyway), and (2) the ultimate consequences it had on the union and it's membership generally (at the very least, it cost a ton of potential Teamster jobs).
That said, until lately, I've maintained that, from the union perspective, a strike is generally successful if it lasts a week or less. If it drags on for two weeks or a bit more, then it's probably a toss-up. If it lasts three weeks or more, then quite likely it's a loss....no matter how much the union might want to put a pretty face on it. Now the company being struck may come out losing, too....but what good does that do the union? For example, look at the AMPI mechanics strike against Northwest Airlines (NWA) a few years back. The strike lasted for gosh knows how long and, although NWA quickly replaced the strikers, the company still went down (bankrupt). But what good did that do the strikers? They all lost their jobs, and were tossed into an environment where, because of their actions, fewer opportunities were available.
I agree that "unfair labor practices" could be - and ARE! - used in even questionable cases. But today, even if the NLRB agrees with such charges, they tend to have less success. Theoretically, such charges are resolved when the strike ends, and potentially fines are paid, and possibly back wages as well. But today companies often seem to be willing to ride it out; to LET the strike continue to the point that the strikers have other jobs, or they've starved themselves out. After months - or even years - without wages, even the most strident of union backers often has a changed attitude. And, in truth, it doesn't even have to be a strike today. Witness the American Crystal Sugar lock-out I mentioned earlier on this thread; it's been going on for over a YEAR now...and it appears that the company has put itself in a position where, if needed, it could maintain the lockout "forever". Another example that just came to mind was the UAW/Conn-Bach strike of five or six years ago. Ultimately, the workers and the UAW parted ways, only 30% of the striking workers eventually got their jobs back, and many of the retirees lost their pensions. Memories of situations like that can very much weigh on a job action today.
Or take the example of "Cat", or Wal-Mart up in Canada. Cat just closed its London, ON Electro-Motive facility down, apparently moving its production to a non-union Indiana facility. Wal-Mart simply just closed its Jonquiere, Quebec store period. Or, in the case of facing U.S. union organizing among its meat cutters at one location, decided to outsource ALL its cut meat. Ultimately today, companies can just close a facility down if they're confronted with a labor situation they don't like....and there's little that "unfair labor practices" charges can do about it. Even the NLRB can't force a company to stay in business and, as the Supreme Court of Canada upheld when Wal-Mart closed that store in Canada. Today the law still usually can't force even a single facility to remain in operation.
Is all of that applicable to UPS today? Probably not...but I will submit that UPS has put itself in a position to better withstand a lengthy walkout relative to that of ten or fifteen years ago. TDU is claiming (and I'm using their statistic simply because it's the one I've read most recently, not because I believe it's necessarily the most accurate) that 63% of UPS's PROFIT (not revenue!) comes from the domestic small package operation. That's actually considerably less than what I thought. Such a figure would indicate that much more of the company's profit is coming from non-domestic operations. And, while the 37% that remains may not sound like much, it's a lot more than what was available in '97. And, remember, it was the union which "blinked" in '97; apparently, if the union had made its pension rebate proposal, the company was prepared to go on a bit further.
Of course, there's also the matter of inter-company support; i.e. - from overseas unions, the pilots, freight drivers, etc. That's quite possible...but I'm reminded of the Penn. Turnpike Teamsters strike of a few years back, in which UPS feeder drivers ignored the picket lines and travelled the turnpike anyway. As for the pilots, take a look at sites such as "The Airline Pilot Central Forum", especially the freight section, and see how many are on furlough and/or waiting to be called-up by a freight operation training class. Today, while they may not be QUICKLY replaceable, ultimately they are.
Could the system be restructured with replacements overnight? Of course not. It would be a step-by-step process that would take months at the very least...but it COULD be done. And I think it could likely be done at a cheaper price than what it ultimately cost the company to withdraw from Central States (i.e. - the difference between the '97 withdrawal feel and when the company actually did withdraw)
Again, thanks for your post. Hope I was responsive