TS Sandy

UnconTROLLed

UnconTROLLed

perfection
texan said:
Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic, New England, and Canada

The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray an increased risk to the U.S. and Canadian East
Coasts for early next week. The GFS model, which had been showing that Sandy would head to the northeast out to
sea, now has changed its tune, and predicts that Sandy will double back and hit Maine on Tuesday evening.

The ECMWF model, which has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy, now has the storm hitting Delaware
on Monday afternoon. These models are predicting that Sandy will get caught up by the trough approaching
the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into the storm, converting it to a powerful
subtropical storm with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph.

Winds of this strength would likely cause massive power outages, as trees still in leaf take out power lines.
Also of great concern are Sandy's rains.
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Hurricane Sandy hits Jamaica, dumps heavy rains on Haiti | Weather Underground
Click to expand...
It's too early to begin talking about wind speeds and overall effects, so I do not agree with the Dr. Not impossible Sandy slides out to sea, and the inverted trough type scenario pans out. That means just an average nor'easter or distant offshore autumn ocean storm.

The majority of the 18z GEFS ensemble shows this, and only 1 or 2 individual members of 14 have a "hit". That is a step back from 12z. Roll the dice and hope for 1 or 2 in 14 as a forecaster? (assuming the gfs is the only data available) ha!

At the same time, the gfs has been the last to latch onto any of the current (~24hr) trends, so there may still be some questionable data ingested there.
 
texan

texan

Well-Known Member
Sleeve_meet_Heart said:
It's too early to begin talking about wind speeds and overall effects, so I do not agree with the Dr. Not impossible Sandy slides out to sea, and the inverted trough type scenario pans out. That means just an average nor'easter or distant offshore autumn ocean storm.

The majority of the 18z GEFS ensemble shows this, and only 1 or 2 individual members of 14 have a "hit". That is a step back from 12z. Roll the dice and hope for 1 or 2 in 14 as a forecaster? (assuming the gfs is the only data available) ha!

At the same time, the gfs has been the last to latch onto any of the current (~24hr) trends, so there may still be some questionable data ingested there.
Click to expand...
Kudu's you are very knowledgeable about weather and hurricanes. :happy-very:

Reminds me of my father who was a weatherman in the Army Air Corp.

Imagine getting stationed in the Aleutian Islands in World War II? brrrr and having to provide weather
forecast with the limited technology they had back then?
 
texan

texan

Well-Known Member
The Weather Channel's post:
map_tropprjpath18_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg
 
moreluck

moreluck

golden ticket member
You should just plan a big picnic with family......after all, you have the inside info. that the storm is moving out to sea!!!
 
Babagounj

Babagounj

Strength through joy
According to Senate hopeful Warren , who is on record as to a claim that Mass. has an ocean front along the NY border , then his out to sea comment could be considered valid .
 
UnconTROLLed

UnconTROLLed

perfection
texan said:
Kudu's you are very knowledgeable about weather and hurricanes. :happy-very:

Reminds me of my father who was a weatherman in the Army Air Corp.

Imagine getting stationed in the Aleutian Islands in World War II? brrrr and having to provide weather
forecast with the limited technology they had back then?
Click to expand...
thanks Tex.

That is interesting about your father being a weatherman in the service. That doesn't sound like a dream gig, but hey at least he wasn't in the navy on a ship somewhere off the Aleutians. :D
 
UnconTROLLed

UnconTROLLed

perfection
12z GEFS ensembles are almost entirely in line with a major storm.

Now, it's possible they are all wrong, too. But the stakes are raised since there are no longer any credible global models showing an escape out to sea, including the last to latch on- the whacky gfs.
f120.gif
 
klein

klein

Für Meno :)
storm_uni.jpg

Monster storm has meteorologists spooked
The collision of a hurricane and arctic blast over the East Coast may be worse than 1991's 'Perfect Storm.' 'Rough'
 
UnconTROLLed

UnconTROLLed

perfection
klein said:
storm_uni.jpg


Monster storm has meteorologists spooked

The collision of a hurricane and arctic blast over the East Coast may be worse than 1991's 'Perfect Storm.' 'Rough'
Click to expand...
Todays fun thought:
The best way to express this in UPS terms,

UPSs uses similar data within computer modeling- to forecast delivery routes, times, GPS points, etc.

There are so many moving parts with this storm setup , i.e. bulk stops, traffic, red lights , detours , accidents, that none of the models can accurately assess the driver's (Sandy Dandy) planned day. :)
 
UnconTROLLed

UnconTROLLed

perfection
which leads me to wonder how i.e. are more accurate forecasters than meteorologists (whom we all complain about, too), when meteorologists are exercised in math and physics well beyond the norm and certainly above i.e. (second most difficult bachelor's degree to nuclear engineering)
 
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