TS Sandy

[BrownArmy]

Todays fun thought:
The best way to express this in UPS terms...There are so many moving parts with this storm setup , i.e. bulk stops, traffic, red lights , detours , accidents, that none of the models can accurately assess the driver's (Sandy Dandy) planned day.

Sandy Dandy's ETA back to building...0130!

 

[Harry Manback]

I can't believe we're still talking about this, didn't you hear? It's going out to sea.

 

[Bubblehead]

 

[Bubblehead]

TS Sandy will go out to sea.

Why would you wager on the weather on an internet forum if it was one of only two places in the world that you sought validation?

 

[Bubblehead]

Why would you wager on the weather on an internet forum if it was one of only two places in the world that you sought validation?

For the record, I feel sorry for Dave and hope to ultimately help him.
After all, he is my Union brother.

 

[Babagounj]

Monster storm has meteorologists spooked

The collision of a hurricane and arctic blast over the East Coast may be worse than 1991's 'Perfect Storm.' 'Rough'

Around here it was known as the No Name storm.
The phrase you call it was thought up in Hollywood.

I saw seawalls that had stood for over 100 years crumble along with their cement patios.

 

[texan]

thanks Tex.

That is interesting about your father being a weatherman in the service. That doesn't sound like a dream gig, but hey at least he wasn't in the navy on a ship somewhere off the Aleutians.

He is gone, may he rest in peace.
He was awarded a Bronze Star and Purple Heart.
Someone may say huh? A weatherman?

A lot of people do not realize the battles that occured in the Aleutians Islands.

The Japanese had two islands and did not want to give them up in 1942 thru 1943.

It took a year for the US to oust them.

Aleutian Islands Campaign - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[texan]

 

[menotyou]

​Frankenstorm is coming!!!!

 

[klein]

​Frankenstorm is coming!!!!

Well, anyone that wants to escape Frankenstorm is welcome to spend a week or more here.
If that storm gets nasty as some predict - millions will be out of power for weeks !

Lets all hope it doesn't go inland as currently predicted !
(otherwise Obama will become another hero just before re-election, eh )

 

[moreluck]

They're talking Ohio , but we'll just wait nd see.

 

[opie]

Been reading on a weather forum, and they are saying it's going to be pretty devastating if it continues on it's track as forecasted. We will see, hopefully not. I wonder if UPS will shutdown on Monday and/or Tuesday in the areas affected. Good chance the authorities may ban driving, force people to stay home.

 

[packageguy]

This should be a fun up coming week. Up here in New York it will be challange, we live for this. Never a problem just a situation.....

 

[island1fox]

Who said it was going out to sea ???

 

[klein]

Who said it was going out to sea ???

Hopefully the person that will get most effected by this Monster Storm !
They are already counting for millions to be with out power for days or even weeks.

Honestly, if I lived in that area, I would be packing now, and be ready to leave west in any moments giving time.

 

[texan]

 

[texan]

 

[UnconTROLLed]

 

[moreluck]

Sandy is too nice a name for what is to be a mean storm.....Sybil would be more appropriate.

 

[UnconTROLLed]

Discussion from BOX....Just a wee bit strong wording, one to remember for sure.

000
FXUS61 KBOX 270613
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO
NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. HURRICANE SANDY MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE BAHAMAS WILL RUN NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEK.

&&


SATURDAY NIGHT...
INCREASING EAST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON PCPN...NONE
OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY BEFORE 09Z...ALTHOUGH SOME SIGNS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CT/WESTERN MASS DURING 06Z-12Z. WE WILL WORK
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO ALL AREAS DURING THE NIGHT WITH CHANCE
POPS REACHING CT AND WESTERN MASS AFTER 06Z...ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* SANDY IS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SETTING A
HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY OF OTHER TROPICAL/
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS...HIGHLY LIKELY TO
HAVE AN IMPACT UPON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

* SANDY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY DESTRUCTIVE STORM WITH STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS /STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE/...MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION...AND FINALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
INTERIOR FLOODING.

* DETAILS ARE PRESENTED BELOW WITH CAPE MAY NJ SERVING AS THE
BENCHMARK BETWEEN BEST- AND WORST-CASE SCENARIOS

OVERALL...

WHILE IT IS LIKELY SANDY WILL LEFT-HOOK INTO THE NERN CONUS...THE
EXACT LOCATION WHERE IT MAKES LANDFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WE ARE
LOOKING AT AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA N TO THE S
COASTLINE OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL. AT THE VERY
MINIMUM...STRONG WINDS /GALE FORCE WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS/ AND HIGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST SWELL.
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ANTICIPATED
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF STORM SURGE...WITH DOWNED TREES AND
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AT THE LEAST.

BUT WITH FOCUS UPON THE 26/12Z MODEL SOLNS...THIS COULD BE A VERY
CATASTROPHIC AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND NEIGHBORING LOCALITIES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
DOWNED TREES AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES /LIKELY FOR DAYS/ WOULD BE
ANTICIPATED. WITH SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST SWELL AND THE NEAR-PASSAGE
OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM...WE WOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. SUBSTANTIALLY SEVERE
BEACH EROSION ALONG ALL BEACHES WOULD BE A LIKELY OUTCOME. A GREATER
PROPENSITY FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD LEAD TO MORE INTERIOR FLOODING.

THERE STILL REMAINS A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...SPECIFICALLY TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...LANDFALL...
AND CONSEQUENTIAL IMPACTS. NUMEROUS POSSIBILITIES REMAIN ON THE
TABLE...BUT THE BEST ADVICE IS TO BE TUNED TO THE LATEST FCSTS AND
START GETTING PREPARED.

SYNOPTIC SETUP...

A VERY STRONG NEGATIVE NAO WILL PREVAIL WITH A LARGE HEMISPHERIC
BLOCKING PATTERN THRU THE ATLANTIC...PROMOTING DEEP TROUGHING AND
DRAW DOWN OF COLDER AIR FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IT IS THRU THIS TROUGH THAT MOST ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AGREE UPON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING THRU THE BASE...CYCLONICALLY DIGGING...DRAWING DOWN COLDER
AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH /BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED/. CONSEQUENTIALLY THE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
ATLANTIC RIDGE ENHANCES RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE MID-UPR LVL
JET AXIS /FROM THE OHIO RVR VLY NORTH INTO CANADA/. SUBSEQUENTLY...
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET AXIS
PROMOTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES.

BLOCKED BY LOW-MID LVL RIDGING BUILDING S OUT OF THE ERN CANADIAN
MARITIMES /THE STRENGTH OF WHICH REMAINS IN DISPUTE AMONGST MODEL
SOLNS AND LIKELY A FACTOR IN THE NUMEROUS POSSIBILITIES IN WHERE
SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL/...SANDY HOOKS WEST TOWARDS THE REGION OF
GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS IMPRESSIVELY DEEPENING /THOUGH AM REMAINING
HESITANT AS IT HAS BEEN NOTED THAT MODEL SOLNS CAN BE OVERZEALOUS
WITH A STRONG BIAS ON CYCLONE DEEPENING WITH PHASING SYSTEMS/.
POST-TROPICAL AND THE MORE DOMINANT WAVE...SANDY USURPS ENERGY ASSOC
WITH THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED BAROCLINIC TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS WEST
INTO THE INTERIOR NERN CONUS. THEREAFTER THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
WOBBLE SLOWLY THRU ERN GRT LKS AND ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY THRU THE END
OF THE WEEK PSBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING...

THERE IS A FAIR AMNT OF CONFIDENCE OF SEAS AT OR EXCEEDING 30 FEET
ALONG BOTH THE E AND S COASTLINES. DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF SANDY
WITH ATTENDANT WIND AND SURGE PATTERNS THERE IS THE PLAUSIBILITY FOR
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE SHORELINE OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE POTENTIAL SITUATION IS ENHANCED THANKS TO THE TIMING OF THE FULL
MOON AND BUILDING OF TIDE CYCLES PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF SANDY. SEVERE
BEACH EROSION IS ANTICIPATED.

IN THE BEST-CASE...THE SOUTHERN PASS OF SANDY WILL DIMINISH THE U-
COMPONENT OF THE WIND. SEAS AROUND 25 TO 30 FEET WITH SURGES ALONG
THE E SHORELINE OF 4-6 FEET WOULD BE EXPECTED...AROUND 4 FEET FOR
THE S COASTLINE.

IN THE WORST-CASE...A STRONG ANOMALOUS U-COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL
RESULT IN WAVES EXCEEDING 40 FEET WITH STORM SURGES OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ALONG THE E SHORELINE /WITH THE PERFECT STORM OF 1991 THE BUOY
OUTSIDE BOSTON HARBOR WAS RECORDING 35 FEET WAVES AND THIS MAY
LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN OR BE HIGHER WITH SANDY/. THE S COAST IS NOT
SPARED WITH SURGES OF 4-6 FEET WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 30 TO
35 FEET. ;O

WIND...

WITH THE APPROACH OF SANDY FROM THE S/E...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS
ITSELF TRANSITIONING FROM THE NW QUADRANT TO THE NE QUADRANT AS IT
HOOKS WEST INTO THE INTERIOR NERN CONUS. INITIAL N/NELY FLOW WOULD
BE EXPECTED TO VEER OUT OF THE E/SE. THE ONSET OF WINDS BEGINS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE STRONGEST OF
WINDS BASED ON FCST GUIDANCE CENTER AROUND THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE BEST-CASE...GALE FORCE WINDS /40-54 MPH/ WITH FREQUENT STORM
FORCE GUSTS /55 MPH TO 73 MPH/.

IN THE WORST-CASE...SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS /AT OR GREATER THAN 74 MPH/. WE COULD SEE
GUSTS EXCEEDING 100 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN AND INTERIOR FLOODING...

WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM CENTER...THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE S/W PERIPHERY COLLOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP LYR
LIFT. BUT A WARM-CORED SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
CONVEYORING AROUND THE CENTER OF STORM...THE ONSHORE MOIST E/NE FLOW
ROTATING AROUND THE STORM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO OROGRAPHICALLY LIFT
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 4-8 INCHES /UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE/ IN A 24 TO 36 HR PERIOD. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IN A SHORTER
PERIOD OF TIME WOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE INTERIOR FLOODING.

IN THE BEST-CASE...HEAVIEST OF RAINS REMAIN WELL S/W OF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG E
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR
URBAN AREAS...SMALL RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS.

IN THE WORST-CASE...WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF RAINS MAY BE IMMEDIATELY
S/W OF THE FCST AREA...A BETTER WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF TROPICAL AIR
WOULD USHER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RESULTING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME /1-3 HRS/ WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS
INCLUDING MAINSTEM RIVERS.

&&