Italian daily Il Fatto Quotidiano interviewed me (see here) regarding the latest developments in Italy, Europe and Greece. The original Q&A (in English) follows: Greece is about to exit from the notorious memorandum, the austerity plan signed with the troika. Public finance has improved at a...
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Do you believe that your country would be better off if it had left the Eurozone?
What I know is that we should not have accepted the 3rd bailout and the new austerity conditions it came with in 2015. And if the troika wanted to throw us out of the euro for doing the right thing, it would be regrettable and painful but, by now, Greece would indeed be much better off....
In the summer of 2015, before the referendum, you had in fact a plan for the Grexit, prepared – you said – in agreement with Prime minister Tsipras. But you state that even ECB, German finance ministry and Italian current minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, have one. What do you know about this last one?
I have seen no details. But I do know the European Central Bank, the Bank of Italy and various Italian governments do have a plan of how to respond to a crisis that, overnight, freezes Italy out of the euro. Let me put it differently: It would be criminally negligent not to have such as plan. It would be akin to the Ministry of Defence not having a plan for what to do if Italy were to be attacked by an enemy.
How does the Greek debt crisis of 2015 compare, in your opinion, with the current Italian situation?
There are important similarities and important differences. Both are countries are caught up in a conundrum: we are far worse off due to the euro but at the same time a euro exit would be very, very painful. It is as if we are in a burning house without exits. Another similarity is that both our countries are constantly under threat from Berlin and Frankfurt that, if we do not do as we are told, our ATMs will stop functioning and people will lose their deposits – while, at the same time, if we do as we are told, our societies will stagnate. Turning to the main difference, in 2015 our government did not want Grexit whereas any 5S-Lega government would welcome a financial crisis that forces Italy out of the euro. And given Italy’s size, that would mean the end of the euro.