Anyhow, back to the point. Can you explain some more details on why getting my CDL would be a good move? Becoming a full-time RTD is impossible with my seniority. Plus those jobs are very seldom( I look at jcats every thursday evening).
You would be building on an existing skill set - the operation of a commercial vehicle. There is demand out there for people with a CDL, possessing one gives you the ability to compete for those jobs. A CDL in combination with the 7 years you have spent as a Courier would put you slightly ahead of other applicants (who just possess a CDL and no driving experience whatsoever) for these jobs. In this economy, you are literally competing with 9 other applicants for each and every job opening you apply for, you need something that places you solidly ahead of those 9 other applicants as much as possible AND opens up more positions which you can apply for in the first place.
RTD positions don't open up too often, BUT if you have your CDL, you would be able to apply. If a RTD position did happen to open up at your nearby ramp in a few months and you didn't have your CDL in hand, you'd be kicking yourself for not getting it. You need to have as many qualifications as you can possibly muster in this economy to enable yourself to jump on opportunity as it presents itself.
As I think about the upcoming buyouts more. I do feel you are correct that buying out more senior managers would be top priority. I'd assume the new/newer managers would be offered different management positions elsewhere. I'm sure if that manager turned down a position elsewhere. Fedex will say you volunteered to terminated your employment and will get no compensation.
When FedEx does downsizing or reorganizing and eliminates a salaried position, they inevitably offer some form of "buyout". I'd have to check on unemployment law, but I'm nearly certain that when an employee accepts a "buyout", they are not considered to have been involuntarily let go (laid off), so FedEx doesn't get hit when it comes to paying for unemployment claims.
From everything I'm hearing, FedEx is looking to get rid of all Couriers that are past about half progression and replace them with entry level Couriers (no need for experience with D-ROADS) and trimming salaried staff positions to bring that overhead within Express down to levels that are more in keeping with expectation of future volumes. The details of how they are to accomplish that are obviously still not known. Express is also looking at gradually phasing out the full-time Courier in anticipation of Express shifting delivery of non-overnight volume over to Ground.
The real question is how fast is this ship going to sink? I vision express as a overnight company only. I feel the same way most of you do in regards to the shift over to ground. Though, how long will the ponzi scheme last at ground is another question to ponder.
I don't want to get to off beat here. I've just been brain storming a lot the past few months about my future. I don't want to ride the ship to the depths of the sea. I want to jump ship while I still stand a fighting chance.
As far as to "how fast is this ship going to sink", it all depends on what your definition of sinking is. For many, when opportunities for OT are eliminated and they are faced with only getting 40 hours a week (or marginally more), the ship will have already lost its luster and is sinking. When Express Saver is eliminated, total hours will naturally decline by about 10% or so (most of that decline will be in OT hours on the delivery side).
When D-ROADS is fully implemented in all stations this fall, supposedly this will allow near "perfect" planning of route volumes, enabling no OT to occur at all within loops with the exception of a single Courier.
Another part of what I'm hearing (I've already written about this) is that Express will open up the "hiring spigot" this autumn, bringing in a large number of part-time Couriers to operate all those vacant routes that now exist. They want to wait until D-ROADS is perfected, because they don't want to train them in "traditional" methods of getting volume off. One bit of information I'm trying to get is whether the curriculum for Courier training will radically alter in the coming months - altered to train Couriers SOLELY for operations under D-ROADS.
Is Express going to involuntarily dump Couriers? No, they don't want the unemployment claims and potential litigation for age discrimination.
Is Express going to slowly alter its operational practices in the next 2 to 3 years to encourage all high progression Couriers to leave of their own accord? I'd have to answer yes.
The second part of the two part strategy of FedEx to reduce costs at Express is to radically reduce labor costs - this isn't confined to eliminating positions, it includes dumping "highly compensated" Couriers (whose skill set at delivering with traditional methods will no longer be needed) and replacing them with part-timer Couriers that rely on technology to get the volume off (and who would be helpless if the technology were to happen to fail).
The question you have to ask yourself is, "How long can I hang around the "21st Century" Express and still live and work the way I want to live?" If you are fine with working with a 3 hour or so split shift every day at your current compensation level (don't count on any real post inflation progression in pay with what is going to happen - just won't happen), then you could hang on almost indefinitely. If you don't want to put in a 11 hour day and only get paid for just over 8, then you'd better start looking now and be out the door at Express within 2 years.
This brings up another issue - pay progression. There hasn't been any real progression (increase above the rate of inflation) in compensation at Express for wage employees since March 2008 - excepting those beyond 50% of progression this past year, the reasons have already been discussed. FedEx wants Express to look more like Ground when it comes to cost structure, this means that "drivers" will be compensated at their "max" more or less the first day they operate a truck.
If a new hire Courier (under D-ROADS) can hit max productivity within a couple months of working, why in the hell would FedEx want to jump their pay by 50% over a period of time? That would defeat the purpose of obtaining the technology. If that person got burned out after a couple of years and wanted to either get paid more or quit - the FedEx solution would be for that person to quit and pull yet another body off the street and stick them into the driver's seat.
With the ISP model being brought into Ground, I don't see some federal court slapping FedEx with a finding of misclassification of employees and ordering compensation in the billions of dollars to be paid - just don't see it. The drivers of Ground are misclassified, but it is all dependent on how the attorneys do the dance of setting up companies and making sure each company operates within the letter of the law, if completely outside the intent of the law. So don't expect some massive set back for FedEx, just won't happen without some massive changes in existing law.
If you (and all the other low progression full time Couriers) start to make plans for future career outside of Express - NOW, you'll be better off for it and prepared to leave on your terms. If you wait until you are putting in the 11 hour day and only getting pay for just over 8, you will be in a corner. How will you look for another job when you are putting in those kind of hours - try to squeeze an interview in during that extended break?
Waiting until you are absolutely miserable until you start to look for another job (or start to train for another job) is a mistake. No one needs that kind of stress in their life. Realizing that things are changing for the worse with your current employer and making plans for an eventual departure will make leaving much easier.
If FedEx had any real "people first" philosophy, they would've announced the intended direction of Express and encouraged the full-time Couriers to start looking for opportunities elsewhere. In the real world, if Express had done this, the full-time Couriers
wouldn't have started looking for other employment opportunities, they would've unionized to keep their jobs (just what Express has wanted to avoid for years). Thus you have the reason for the gradual unveiling of the master plan.
So rather than looking at things as "how long will it take the ship to sink", you should ask yourself, "How long will it take me to find another job". In this economy, it could take well over a year of serious looking. I don't know of too many people on a sinking ship asking themselves, "Should I wait to get on a life boat, or should I get on the first one that I possibly can?" Those that do ask themselves this question usually end up in real trouble...
If you know the ship is sinking, start looking for a lifeboat now, you don't want to "milk it out" for too long, you could end up swimming with just a life vest on - just not worth the risk.