Keep your eyes on small very unstable but strategically important Moldova. As for Ukraine. it's a country nearly the size of Texas, flat as Kansas 45 million people, 7-10 hours ahead of the US and has a high water table and when the frost goes out it could get pretty soft and muddy for heavy armaments. So if he's going to do it he needs to go now or wait until summer when everything dries up enough.I would trust Putin as much as I trust trump.