stock price??

[fieldhand49]

Could it be that UPS BOD has something up its sleeve. Report OK earning, fumble around during the presentation, make some stupid remarks, talk about maybe missing year end number. Magically, the stock drops like a hookers panties during fleet week. UPS buys back about 1 or 2 billion $$ of stock back at $70 to $68. Retires a portion of the stock, increasing the book value of the stock, retain stock for MIP, bought at $68 a share, They increase the dividend and pay it out on less shares over the next two quarters, the stock goes up to around $75 to $78 a share by year end and they put fewer share out in the form of MIP. Is this possible? Anyone have any thoughts?

 

[psstdrvr]

I wouldn't doubt it. Management is known for playing with the numbers its par for the course at UPS. Hey, whats up with the OPL sludge fund? Hmmmm.....another way of hiding the truth!!!! Wow ain't management great!!!

 

[tieguy]

Could it be that UPS BOD has something up its sleeve. Report OK earning, fumble around during the presentation, make some stupid remarks, talk about maybe missing year end number. Magically, the stock drops like a hookers panties during fleet week. UPS buys back about 1 or 2 billion $$ of stock back at $70 to $68. Retires a portion of the stock, increasing the book value of the stock, retain stock for MIP, bought at $68 a share, They increase the dividend and pay it out on less shares over the next two quarters, the stock goes up to around $75 to $78 a share by year end and they put fewer share out in the form of MIP. Is this possible? Anyone have any thoughts?

nope all a plot to drop the price and get people to buy more. Manipulation of this kind can not be controlled and would be way too risky for anyone to try no matter how shady you may want to believe management is. Keep in mind the guys who make this decision had personal losses in the millions. Nope we have the wrong guy out there presenting our numbers. Kind of like a bible preacher trying to sell womens lingerie

 

[cgpeanut]

There is always going to be UPS store drama------not all Franchises are going to approve with the vision that UPS has-------I remember when US Office (American Office?) owned MBE prior to UPS--not all of the Franchises agreed with the Corportate Vision of MBE-------and when the mother ship (US Office Supply) was about to file chapter 11.......which would have left MBE owners flat on their.......faces---UPS came along and bailed them out and is now going in a different direction.

UPS is trying to control any new ASO---there won't be any, unless it is a chain.....Postal Annex.....Box Store---but there will be no more mom and pops to compete with the UPS Stores.I would also hope that UPS is always looking for partnerships with AT&T--Computer Companies--whomever to make the UPSS the only drop off locations------also, and it has been awhile--I remember a special rate to the public for shipping from a UPSS to a UPSS which would be lower than the published rate-----the intent is to get more foot traffic into the UPSS locations........and while they are there----copies--Private PO Box---Shipping supplies----more $$$ for the francisee

So much for the ongoing UPSS Drama!!


I am more concerned that the pressure is on FedEx to have a better quarter than UPS------they are ass-backward in how they report their quarters so it is hard to compare our Qtr earnings with theirs-----but they projest a rosey outlook that the rest of the year is going to meet anaylists expectations---and believe me they will do everything in their power to pull it off. FedEx passes off higher fuel costs to customers--but they can't pass them all off---so I will wait and see what they report----and all things being equal, if they do have a great quarter and meet or exceed Wall Street expectations, than, and only than, will I second guess UPS Corporate's vision.

UPS is still showing record profits--and not be up to WS's expectations--but it sure meets mine--and makes me feel confident in where the company is going!!

what about the union contract coming up. I would think that Air drivers would be concerned about having to pick up ground packages in the nda drop off boxes. I thought the contract says that the part time air drivers who get less per hr were protected against having to pick up ground packages. My understanding of this was at the point that they( air drivers) pick up the first ground package they are to be paid the higher ground driver hourly wage from that point forward until they end their shift. Is this correct? I would think that this could be a significant issue since the majority of ARs/Bins that are now allowed to be placed into the NDA drop boxes are ground packages.

 

[fieldhand49]

Wall Street must really hate UPS. The stock continues to drop. 3 to 6 million being traded almost daily. Fdx has lost a big discrimination in California and the stock went up. Courts are ruling in favor or FDX ground drivers being employees and not independent contractors and the stock goes up. Fdx pays very little dividends and the stock goes up. Fred S knows how to handle the Wall street people. What did we do to Wall street to p*ss them off. Are we to solid of a company? Do we not have enough debt? The dividends have gone up each quarter or stayed the same, even during the strike of 97. All the Wall street analist were saying as soon as we settle with the pilots the stock would start to move. We sign and it goes down. We need to get a better PR firm and keep S. Davis away from the media. IMHO

 

[mrbill]

UPS does the same thing to everyone,if you have not figured it out by now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

 

[wily_old_vet]

Hey more-Didnt I read that you bought some fdx stock. It bumped into the $99.xx range a little while ago.

 

[moreluck]

Yeah wily, I did. Right now, none of the transports are Wall Street darlings. Eventually the bleeding will stop........but I'm still going to Vegas!!!

 

[Braveheart]

At my center they brought over like 10 routes from another center due to building over there blowing out. They do not want to build another bldg, buy land, or add management so they think this is cheaper. Now the drivers on these routes have a longer drive time to and from area. What does this cost extra? MORE FUEL.....MORE OVERTIME.....MORE 9.5 GRIEVANCES/CHECKS......MORE TRUCKS BREAKING DOWN FURTHER FROM BLDG.......FEWER SURROUNDING DRIVERS TO SOLVE DISPATCH ISSUES....MORAL DROPS......LESS TEAMWORK......CUSTOMER SERVICE DROPS......AIRS, GROUND, BULK ALL DELIVERED LATER AND LATER......MUST PICK UP SOONER DUE TO LONGER RETURN TO BLDG DRIVE TIME.....LONGER DRIVE = LESS STOPS PER CAR, wait i like that one.....HAD A COUPLE GOOD DRIVERS QUIT DUE TO LONG COMMUTE....FEWER DELIVERIES DONE WITH AIR WHICH CUSTOMERS LIKED.....these are just a few that stand out.....more overtime forced on drivers just leads to lower morale, increased injuries, increased sick days, grievances, etc etc etc as the company squeezes more and more out of us, managers included, all I see are defections with some to the competition. We have lost countless quality part timers who got sick of waiting, this includes pt sups. We have lost plenty of quality managers too. New ones have no clue. Many quality drivers left and their relationships with customers left as well. UPS squeezes away the customers and chokes the employees!

 

[Thebrowntruth]

At my center they brought over like 10 routes from another center due to building over there blowing out. They do not want to build another bldg, buy land, or add management so they think this is cheaper. Now the drivers on these routes have a longer drive time to and from area. What does this cost extra? MORE FUEL.....MORE OVERTIME.....MORE 9.5 GRIEVANCES/CHECKS......MORE TRUCKS BREAKING DOWN FURTHER FROM BLDG.......FEWER SURROUNDING DRIVERS TO SOLVE DISPATCH ISSUES....MORAL DROPS......LESS TEAMWORK......CUSTOMER SERVICE DROPS......AIRS, GROUND, BULK ALL DELIVERED LATER AND LATER......MUST PICK UP SOONER DUE TO LONGER RETURN TO BLDG DRIVE TIME.....LONGER DRIVE = LESS STOPS PER CAR, wait i like that one.....HAD A COUPLE GOOD DRIVERS QUIT DUE TO LONG COMMUTE....FEWER DELIVERIES DONE WITH AIR WHICH CUSTOMERS LIKED.....these are just a few that stand out.....more overtime forced on drivers just leads to lower morale, increased injuries, increased sick days, grievances, etc etc etc as the company squeezes more and more out of us, managers included, all I see are defections with some to the competition. We have lost countless quality part timers who got sick of waiting, this includes pt sups. We have lost plenty of quality managers too. New ones have no clue. Many quality drivers left and their relationships with customers left as well. UPS squeezes away the customers and chokes the employees!

Brave,

Very Very true...but take heart, our new corporate philosophy is that we will SHRINK to greatness. Had this bonehead leadership been in Jim Casey's place 90 some years ago we would still be in a basement in Seattle. No one has the courage in Atlanta to take on our competitors head on. No one will throw the corporate bankroll into the battle, instead they just sit back and watch the good UPS'ers go through the meat grinder while we look for nickel and dime solutions to million dollar challenges.

By the way, dont worry about the truth of moral getting out, thats why certain sups take so many of the ERI's for their employees.

 

[beentheredonethat]

At my center they brought over like 10 routes from another center due to building over there blowing out. They do not want to build another bldg, buy land, or add management so they think this is cheaper. Now the drivers on these routes have a longer drive time to and from area. What does this cost extra? MORE FUEL.....MORE OVERTIME.....MORE 9.5 GRIEVANCES/CHECKS......MORE TRUCKS BREAKING DOWN FURTHER FROM BLDG.......FEWER SURROUNDING DRIVERS TO SOLVE DISPATCH ISSUES....MORAL DROPS......LESS TEAMWORK......CUSTOMER SERVICE DROPS......AIRS, GROUND, BULK ALL DELIVERED LATER AND LATER......MUST PICK UP SOONER DUE TO LONGER RETURN TO BLDG DRIVE TIME.....LONGER DRIVE = LESS STOPS PER CAR, wait i like that one.....HAD A COUPLE GOOD DRIVERS QUIT DUE TO LONG COMMUTE....FEWER DELIVERIES DONE WITH AIR WHICH CUSTOMERS LIKED.....these are just a few that stand out.....more overtime forced on drivers just leads to lower morale, increased injuries, increased sick days, grievances, etc etc etc as the company squeezes more and more out of us, managers included, all I see are defections with some to the competition. We have lost countless quality part timers who got sick of waiting, this includes pt sups. We have lost plenty of quality managers too. New ones have no clue. Many quality drivers left and their relationships with customers left as well. UPS squeezes away the customers and chokes the employees!

Braveheart, I agree with you. I think we need to be like the movie field of dreams. If we build it, they will come. We need to desperately expand the hub operations to process the volume quicker and easier. We also need some centers to enlarge to handle more runs. However, we aren't doing it. Here's the reason why from what I've been told.

1. Paying $1 in labor gets deducted immediately from our profit. Paying $1 in building a new building or expanding an existing one gets depreciated over 99 months. Therefore, we don't get to deduct immediately and it actually looks worse to the bottom line to build and expand.
2. Building a new center adds redundant costs, such as an additional mgr, additional OMS, more servers, computers, more cust ctr clerks, additional feeder runs. etc.

I don't agree with the decision, since by not having extra capacity in our system, espescially hubs, it hurts our ability to compete with large customers.

 

[upsdawg]

O.K.---we had a bad quarter--so let's move on and look forward to what the next step is..............waiting for FEDeX to report their next quarter ending(anyone know when that will be?)------the ball is in their court-they said that everything is rosey for the rest of the year...are the fuel prices impacting their profits--or are they passing 100% of the cost to customers??

If FedEx posts a good solid quarter--then they will continue to be the Wall Street darlings and we need to bite-kick and scratch to make sure that we don't have 2 bad quarters in a row!!

funwithups....I am right handed and can do one hand pushups till the cows come home....or until my little guy here passes out!!

 

[wkmac]

the problem with that logic is you usually have to announce a catostrophic event to see the stock drop 8 to 10 bucks in a day. Missing earnings should never cause that big a drop.

Tie,
Read the transcript of the conference call that Scott Davis had with analyst and you'll see "the catostrophic event." Scott spoke of "after the fact" looking back at historical operating trends as they related to similar operating scenarios for 2Q and realizing then why we missed. Upon this, there was question after question after question from the participants in the call on this singular issue and Scott dug the hole deeper. To be blunt, he made UPS look like our projections for the 2Q had been on a "wing and a prayer" rather than solid business analysis using historical operating data as a backdrop. Conclusion therefore is, "if you screwed up that bad on your past quarter projections, then how can I trust you on any further projections that I use to base my investments on!"

Now granted I also think the stock dropped well beyond what it should have but Wall Street always panics and then several weeks later with no further bad news to solidify the panic, a stock will begin to venture back. It's take some time IMO for us to get back to where we were but I also recognize that a couple of years ago we couldn't stay out of the $50 price range so we have gained some ground in that respect. UPS is a slow grow, longterm play with opportunities in the middle with dips like the one we have to add to one's holdings. Beyond that, go invest somewhere else because you will only be disappointed.

UPS has already gained back almost half of it's losses from it's recent 52 week high of $83.99 but the good news it our PE ttm is now 19 but the bad news is FDX PE ttm is 17 so the buying will be over there until we prove ourselves with our business plans and FDX stock price gets a little overweighted in value as I'm sure will happen.

Currently you have 5 analyst with a strong buy recommendation, 4 with a buy, 8 hold and only 1 with a strong sell and 0 with a sell based on current Yahoo data. FDX has the same with Strong Buy and buy but the Hold is 9 intead of our 8 and no sell recommendations. If Scott and the folks at Glenlake will do their due dilgence as they are suppose to (obvious they didn't with the 2Q results explaination) and we do the job as we say we will do, then I don't see that much difference between us and FDX so we should be OK for the most part.

JMO

BTW: I do have the transcript and if you can't find it let me know via PM and I'll housemail you a copy if you like.

(sang to a child's tune) "I know where Tie is and Susie don't!"



Here's Susie reading that last one!

I'm just an and I admit it. LMAO!!!!!

 

[upsdawg]

Workmac---good reply...it is obvious that UPS (Board of Directors)is great at moving packages---controlling cost--making a lot of money--building a great company--------unfortunately UPS is still not good at reporting to Wall Street.

As Pres Bush did with Tony Snow------hiring someone who can speak the langauge of the media----UPS should hire someone (PR Company?) to be our spokes person and determine what WS wants to hear---and not give them a less than positive outlook for our future.

Once again, I await the next Quarter Ending report from our friends at FedEx---and we will see how they spin it to make themselves look "Roser than Thou"!!

 

[ups79]

Another positive that I see is that institutional buying continues to rise.

 

[moreluck]

Pilots ratify contract. Granted, it wasn't a resounding majority...only 56%......that should be good news and the stock drops a dollar (11:00 AM Pacific).

The article I read was titled, "UPS Pilots Hit Jackpot". I know it's a cost to the company for the increases, but it still sounds like good news to me. No disruption for the coming holiday season. The contract is good 'til 2011. Why the dollar drop??

I guess I just don't "get it" anymore when it comes to the stock market and it's reaction to news.

 

[over9five]

It probably had something to do with how the UPS spokesman announced it. Imagine......(queue dream sequence music).....

" The pilots have ratified their contract! Unfortunately, those damn Teamsters are due in two years, and we're worried...."

 

[Brown Assassin]

Anyone wonder when the stock will reach the $100 mark and split? That has been a topic of discussion for some time.......curious if anyone else thinks it will ever happen.

 

[over9five]

Nope. Wish I had bought Fedex stock....

 

[Brown Assassin]

Hmm.....it was always assumed that it would happen. I worked in one of the offices in the northeast and people that had plenty of Brown stock were always saying it would happen.

I have peanuts in stock, so hoping a split would occur to give me at least twice as many peanuts.