Hot Topics, Cold Truth
Dr. S. Fred Singer interviewed by John friend. McManus
A leading atmospheric physicist brings some cool-headed reasoning to the hot topics of global warming, the ozone hole, and other environmental issues.
Dr. S. Fred Singer is an atmospheric physicist who leads the Washington-based Science and Environmental Policy Project. He is also a distinguished research professor at George Mason University in Virginia and the Institute for Space Science and Technology in Florida. He was the first director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service, now a branch of the Department of Commerce. He is the author of numerous books, the latest of which is Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warmings Unfinished Debate.
Q. Do you have a position regarding global warming?
A. I certainly do. The climate warms and cools naturally all the time. It changes from day to day, month to month, season to season, year to year, and so on. At times, there is global warming; at other times there is global cooling. Some climate changes are predictable and some are not. We can predict that the winters are colder than the summers because we understand the mechanism. We cannot predict the climate from year to year, however, because we do not know why it fluctuates. When the climate warms, there could be a number of reasons for it doing so, including the sun. Another possibility is that human activities are adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, and this could produce some warming.
The important question then is: How important is the effect of human activities? And that we cannot tell. We know the theory, which says that human activity could be important, but the theory cannot be trusted until it has been verified. Until now, this theory, which is based largely on a mathematical model, has not been validated against observations. If the theory becomes validated against observations, then we can be more confident about using it to predict the future. But were not there yet, and nobody should be basing conclusions and remedies on an unverified theory.
Q. What do the scientific data really show about global warming?
A. Data from earth satellites in use since 1979 do not show any warming. But, eventually, they probably will because carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere. My personal guess, and I stress that this is only my guess, is that there is a greenhouse effect and that it is very small in comparison to natural fluctuations of the climate. We dont see this effect yet, but we may notice it in the next century. Even if we do notice it, it will be extremely small and actually inconsequential. It will be an interesting scientific curiosity but it wont be of any practical importance.
Q. We repeatedly hear mention of the "greenhouse effect" in which heat is supposedly trapped in the atmosphere because of the presence of carbon dioxide and other gases. Is there such an effect?
A. Yes, there is a greenhouse effect. But the problem here is that high government officials have declared that climate science is "settled" and "compelling." The clear implication is that enough is known about it to act, and that any further research findings would be "policy-irrelevant" and not important to international deliberations that have led to a climate treaty. My published conclusions state otherwise, that any warming from the growth of greenhouse gases is likely to be minor, difficult to detect above the natural fluctuations of the climate, and therefore inconsequential. In addition, the impacts of warming and the higher carbon dioxide levels are likely to be beneficial for human activities, especially for agriculture that thrives on carbon dioxide.
But, again, the greenhouse effect is real. The emissions of carbon dioxide that we are putting into the atmosphere will make it more pronounced. But that doesnt mean that the climate is going to warm perceptibly. The atmosphere is very complicated, and there are negative feedbacks that cancel some of the warming. The easiest way to understand what I mean by "negative feedback" is to consider clouds. If you warm the ocean, you get more water vapor, more evaporation, and more clouds that will keep sunlight from entering the earths surfaces. This results in a cooling effect a negative feedback.
Q. Reports about global warming repeatedly cite the 1990 report produced by the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Is this a reliable document?
A. The IPCC modified its own report after it had been approved, taking out key phrases to make it appear certain that human activities were affecting the climate. A few key individuals even removed much of the phraseology that discussed the uncertainties of such an opinion. Numerous scientists have pointed out that this document is unreliable.
Q. There have been several articles about an increase in the number and size of icebergs that have broken off from Antarctica. Is the increase in icebergs due to global warming?
A. The climate did warm over the last 100 years and thats why icebergs are breaking off. Theres no question about that. But the warming took place between 1880 and 1940 so that it is a bit warmer now than it was 100 years ago.
Q. Does it take that long for an iceberg to break off?
A. Yes, it takes a long time for portions of the ice to break off. The melting has been going on for thousands of years and the West Antarctic ice sheet is still melting. The ice sheet may even disappear in 7,000 years. But the real point is that theres nothing we can do about it. The reason its melting is because its warmer now than when the ice formed a long time ago.
Q. You mentioned the "climate treaty" and I assume you mean the 1997 Kyoto Protocol that called for industrial nations to cut emissions of "greenhouse gases" in order to deal with global warming. What is your response to this proposal?
A. The Kyoto proposal, even if fully implemented, wont accomplish anything as far as climate is concerned. It certainly wont stop the Antarctic ice sheet from melting. The only thing that will stop that is another ice age.
Q.Wont it accomplish a great deal as far as industry is concerned?
A. Oh, yes. But the announced purpose of the proposal is to prevent global warming and stabilize the climate. It wont do anything of the sort. If you obey it punctiliously, and all the countries that are supposed to cut back their industrial activity do exactly as called for, even the UN group has calculated that it will reduce the temperature during the next century by 0.05 degrees. No one can even measure that! It is admittedly completely ineffective, so now theyre saying that its an important first step.
Q. Would it be harmful if the climate does become warmer?
A. If it does warm, there will be numerous benefits. Agriculture will be aided because crops will grow faster and sturdier. There will be slightly warmer winters with no effect on summers. Sea level will be hardly affected or perhaps it will rise slightly. This is because of the melting of the ice from the Ice Age and theres nothing we can do about it. Kyotos proposals certainly wont help.
Q. Other than your own Science and Environmental Policy group, are you part of any scientific groups?
A. Yes, I signed the Oregon petition, which has been signed by 20,000 persons, 18,000 of whom have scientific degrees, many with advanced degrees. This project, begun in response to Kyoto, was launched by Dr. Arthur B. Robinson. He received important help from Dr. Fred Seitz, who sent a letter to scientists across the nation containing eight pages about global warming. In his letter, he stated that the Kyoto agreement was "based on flawed ideas" and that "data on climate change do not show that human use of hydrocarbons is harmful."
The Oregon petition was never altered and has 20,000 signatories. The doctored IPCC statement has only 2,000 signatories. But the media seem to focus only on the IPPC statement.
Q. What about the ozone layer and the claims that it is being depleted because of human activity?
A. The ozone layer depletion stopped about 1992. No more depletion has occurred. The total depletion that took place according to a thick United Nations report is about four percent. Thats negligible. Ozone varies from day to day by about 100 percent, and from season to season if you average it by about 40-50 percent. The World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program together produced figures stating that there has been no ozone depletion since 1992.
) and if in some way I can go to zero emmissions, hey let's do it but not under the force of gov't. I know for us in my neck of the woods winter was suppose to be a bad one but it's been awesome except for the spring type storms with severe T-Storms and a couple of tornadoes. We will pay this summer as the bugs will drive us buggie! At the same time, my understanding is that northern Europe and Russia have gotten their butts kicked with some really extreme cold weather so that in itself challenges the term of Global Warming but under this name the idea will include events like warming in one region while another gets very cold and the next year it could reverse.
up, I'm not willing to risk it at this point.
