How i see the BBB in its current form. what the GDP would have to climb to in order to balance the budget.
Spending Cuts: $1.5 trillion over 10 years, including $880 billion from Medicaid/ACA, $230 billion from SNAP, $330 billion from education, and $500 billion unspecified. ( only 150 billion a year)
Spending Increases: $1.12–1.23 trillion over 10 years, with ~$1 trillion for defense, $50–100 billion for border security, $50 billion for veterans, $20–30 billion for law enforcement, and $50 billion for infrastructure/energy.
GDP Increase to Balance: $2.17 trillion annual GDP increase (6.66% above baseline), requiring 10.66% nominal growth (8.66% real + 2% inflation) vs. 4% baseline. ( not very likely)
unknown factors
Recission cuts - our history tells us not to expect much
Additional DOGE cuts - there is potential here. much of the DOGE process is still tied up in the courts including a detailed analysis of Social Security and medicare fraud.
Trade war revenue - its clear Trumps plan is to create additional revenue through tariffs.