Why would our farmers have needed a bailout then but they wouldn’t now?
Trump's massive farmer bailout failed to make up for the 'self-inflicted' trade damage
“The
U.S.-China trade war caused deep damage to many
American farmers and their livelihoods.
And while President Trump directed the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to distribute billions of dollars in
aid to farmers across the country, mostly through the Market Facilitation Program (MFP), that historic bailout did not make up for the significant drop in business that many farmers experienced.
“It will be difficult for us to get back to the levels of agricultural exports to China that we saw before the trade war began,” Mike Stranz, vice president of advocacy for the National Farmers Union, told Yahoo Finance. “Many of the crises that we faced, particularly on trade, were self-inflicted by the Trump administration, whether it was throwing NAFTA into jeopardy by our trading relationships with Canada, Mexico, by dismantling NAFTA and rebuilding USMCA, or taking us in the go-it-alone approach with China. Those crises came from within. Our administration chose to do that.”
a little more AI grok research on tariffs with canada. i used a posting i saw and asked Grok to verify the accuracy of the info.
canada's tariffs are generally very low if you sell small quantities to them but increase dramatically if you try to sell more.
Context: Canada’s Agricultural Tariffs and Supply Management
Canada has a supply management system for certain agricultural products, including dairy (milk, cheese, butter), poultry (chicken, turkey, eggs), and to a lesser extent, other products like beef and pork. This system controls production, sets prices, and protects domestic producers by imposing high tariffs on imports that exceed specific quotas. These tariffs are often referred to as "over-quota tariffs," meaning they apply to imports beyond a set limit allowed at a lower or zero tariff rate.
The tariffs listed in the image are consistent with the over-quota tariffs Canada has historically applied to protect its supply-managed sectors. Let’s go through the numbers:
- Chicken: 263%
- Historically, Canada’s over-quota tariffs on chicken have been very high, often in the range of 240–260%. For example, under the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA, formerly NAFTA), chicken tariffs over the quota have been documented at around 249% for many cuts. A 263% tariff is within the plausible range for chicken, especially for specific products or during certain periods.
- Turkey: 179%
- Turkey, also under supply management, faces similar high tariffs. Over-quota tariffs for turkey have been reported in the range of 154–182%, depending on the product (e.g., whole birds vs. processed). A 179% tariff aligns with historical data.
- Butter: 175%
- Dairy products in Canada are heavily protected. Butter tariffs have been reported at around 298% for over-quota imports in some trade documents, though this can vary based on specific agreements or adjustments. A 175% tariff seems lower than expected but could reflect a specific category or a change in policy I’m not aware of without a search.
- Dairy Spreads: 165%
- Dairy spreads fall under the dairy supply management system. Tariffs in this category are typically high, often exceeding 200%. A 165% tariff is plausible but might be on the lower side for some dairy products.
- Certain Fish Products: 160%
- Fish products are not typically under supply management, and tariffs vary widely. Most fish products face tariffs of 0–7% under Canada’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) rates or free trade agreements like CUSMA. However, certain processed fish products (e.g., canned or smoked fish) can face higher tariffs, though 160% seems unusually high. This number might be inaccurate or refer to a very specific product not commonly discussed.
- Milk: 155%
- Milk tariffs under supply management are indeed high. Over-quota tariffs for milk have been reported at around 241% or more. A 155% tariff seems low for milk but could reflect a specific type (e.g., skim milk powder) or a policy change.
- Cheese: 147%
- Cheese tariffs are also high under supply management. Over-quota tariffs for cheese have historically been around 245%. A 147% tariff is lower than expected but could be tied to a specific type of cheese or a trade concession.
- Beef: 77%
- Beef is not under supply management, and Canada’s tariffs on beef are generally lower. Under CUSMA, most beef imports from the US and Mexico face 0% tariffs within quotas. Over-quota tariffs can be higher, but 77% seems high compared to typical rates of 26.5% for some cuts. This number might be outdated or refer to a specific scenario.
- Pork: 77%
- Like beef, pork is not under supply management. Tariffs on pork are typically lower, often 0% within quotas under CUSMA. Over-quota tariffs can be higher, but 77% seems excessive based on historical data, which shows rates closer to 0–20% for most pork products.
- Eggs: 66%
- Eggs are under supply management, and over-quota tariffs are high. However, 66% is lower than expected—egg tariffs have been reported at around 163% or more for table eggs. This number might be inaccurate or reflect a specific egg product.
- Flour: 40%
- Flour tariffs are not typically as high as supply-managed products. Canada’s MFN tariff on wheat flour is around 15–30%, depending on the type. A 40% tariff seems high but could apply to a specific processed flour product or a period of trade tension.
- Wheat: 38%
- Wheat tariffs are generally low, often 0% under free trade agreements. MFN tariffs on wheat are around 1–5%. A 38% tariff is unusually high and might be inaccurate unless it refers to a processed wheat product or a specific trade dispute.
- Orange Juice: 25%
- Orange juice tariffs in Canada are typically low, around 4–5% under MFN rates, or 0% under free trade agreements. A 25% tariff seems high and might reflect a specific processed juice product or a misclassification.
- Peanut Butter: 25%
- Peanut butter tariffs are around 9.5% under Canada’s MFN rates, though they can be 0% under agreements like CUSMA. A 25% tariff seems high but could apply to a specific scenario or product type.
Analysis of Accuracy
- Supply-Managed Products (Chicken, Turkey, Dairy, Eggs): The tariffs for chicken (263%), turkey (179%), and some dairy products (butter at 175%, dairy spreads at 165%) are within the plausible range of Canada’s historical over-quota tariffs, though some dairy numbers (milk at 155%, cheese at 147%) seem lower than expected. Eggs at 66% are also much lower than typical over-quota rates.
- Non-Supply-Managed Products (Beef, Pork, Fish, Wheat, Flour, Orange Juice, Peanut Butter): The tariffs for these products seem exaggerated. Beef and pork at 77% are higher than typical over-quota rates, and fish at 160% is far above standard tariffs for most fish products. Wheat at 38%, flour at 40%, orange juice at 25%, and peanut butter at 25% also seem higher than Canada’s usual tariff rates for these goods.
- Trade War Context: The image implies these tariffs were in place "before we entered a trade war," likely referring to tensions between Canada and the US (e.g., during the Trump administration’s trade disputes around 2018–2020). These tariffs align with Canada’s long-standing supply management system, not a response to a trade war. However, the numbers for non-supply-managed products don’t fully match historical data.
Conclusion
The tariffs listed for supply-managed products like chicken, turkey, and some dairy items are broadly accurate or close to Canada’s historical over-quota tariffs, though some (e.g., milk, cheese, eggs) are lower than expected. However, the tariffs for non-supply-managed products like beef, pork, fish, wheat, flour, orange juice, and peanut butter are significantly higher than typical rates, suggesting either exaggeration, misclassification, or outdated information.
The statement “25% doesn’t seem so excessive now, does it?” likely refers to a proposed 25% tariff in a trade war context (e.g., US tariffs on Canadian goods or vice versa). Compared to Canada’s supply management tariffs, 25% is indeed lower, but the comparison is somewhat misleading because these high tariffs apply only to over-quota imports, not all imports.
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