FBI Raids Mar-a-lago

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[fishtm2001]

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says the Fed's rate hike campaign is so extreme that recession risk is much higher than risk of the central bank 'waffling' on inflation

"Honestly, Chairman Powell I think should offer the American people an apology for such poor monetary policy he's pursued," Jeremy Siegel said.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

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You do realize all of this snarkiness is going to come back to haunt you in the midterms and in '24?

Why do you even care about US politics? you posted in another thread that you live in what Cult leader would call a "hole Country". none of this even affects you. It aint like you are going to be voting

 

[fishtm2001]

You've got your timeline wrong. The national debt was at about 20 trillion at the end of 2016, Obama's last year. We had a $500 billion trade deficit with China when Trump took office. It was a major issue he tried to address. Trump's tax cut actually increased revenue some. The problem was there was more spending than what they took in. The tax cut itself didn't reduce revenue. I've pointed out before that Trump couldn't get enough Republicans to go along with what he wanted to spend on the military. So he compromised with the Democrats and between them and enough Republicans he got a huge budget passed. You've said there was no budget passed under Trump. Not so. And the Dollar weakened? Every major currency is down against the Dollar. The Pound is at a historical low vs the Dollar. The Euro is trading at less than the Dollar. And you're forgetting that the Tax Cut and Jobs Act actually created jobs. Unemployment was at historical lows for women and minorities. This was after years of stagflation under Obama and him saying those jobs aren't coming back. People forget that gas was expensive under Obama too. Trump's policies brought those prices down. Obama added over $10 trillion to our debt in his 8 years. Trump did add to the national debt too. And by far the biggest year for that was dealing with the pandemic.

Based on trade in goods, donald's $500 billion figure is off by $125 billion.

 

[newfie]

Capitalism. The Treasury sells you an opportunity to share in the country's prosperity by purchasing treasuries. This is the same way a company sells you stock with the prospect of it being worth more in the future. If the underlying asset grows in value, the seller and buyer earn positive returns. No one thinks UPS parted out is worth 150B, but the earnings potential says it is. There are hundreds of traded companies that lose money yearly, yet people invest because of the chance of future earnings. Are these companies printing money or allowing outside money to come in and improve their value?

the country passes a trillion dollar climate change bill to buy and support all kind of climate initiatives.
when they go and buy new solar panels are you saying they are paying for them with treasuries and not currency??

at some point the currency has to come in play . where does the extra 8 trillion dollars of currency come from if we're not printing more?

 

[vantexan]

Based on trade in goods, donald's $500 billion figure is off by $125 billion.

Was widely reported during Trump's term we had a $500 billion trade deficit with China. Is $375 billion acceptable to you? Do you know why we had such a huge trade deficit? The Chinese were more than happy to flood our market with cheap goods but were very protectionist with their own market.

 

[vantexan]

Why do you even care about US politics? you posted in another thread that you live in what Cult leader would call a "hole Country". none of this even affects you. It aint like you are going to be voting

I'm sitting in a coffee house with excellent wifi having just enjoyed a great omelette. They specialize in all day breakfasts. This small city has everything needed. It's clean, has pleasant parks. I can even get, for a price, Tabasco here, lol. They certainly have financial problems yet as a group I've never met more pleasant people to deal with. Probably because they don't practice dog eat dog capitalism. This country isn't about getting ahead. Pretty difficult to do that here. But as far as being nice and treating others with kindness these folks are miles ahead.

 

[fishtm2001]

Was widely reported during Trump's term we had a $500 billion trade deficit with China. Is $375 billion acceptable to you? Do you know why we had such a huge trade deficit? The Chinese were more than happy to flood our market with cheap goods but were very protectionist with their own market.

The 500 B figure was donald's. This just in; he likes to lie. His trade war was widely considered a failure

 

[vantexan]

The 500 B figure was donald's. This just in; he likes to lie. His trade war was widely considered a failure

He was the first president to address it. Our huge trade deficits were a major reason behind the devastation of the middle class.

 

[BlackFriday]

I'm sitting in a coffee house with excellent wifi having just enjoyed a great omelette. They specialize in all day breakfasts. This small city has everything needed. It's clean, has pleasant parks. I can even get, for a price, Tabasco here, lol. They certainly have financial problems yet as a group I've never met more pleasant people to deal with. Probably because they don't practice dog eat dog capitalism. This country isn't about getting ahead. Pretty difficult to do that here. But as far as being nice and treating others with kindness these folks are miles ahead.

Sounds like you live in a great place.

 

[fishtm2001]

He was the first president to address it. Our huge trade deficits were a major reason behind the devastation of the middle class.

Trump's trade war on China was a failure in every possible way

China isn't even close to fulfilling its end of the deal.

www.axios.com

 

[vantexan]

Trump's trade war on China was a failure in every possible way

China isn't even close to fulfilling its end of the deal.

www.axios.com

Yah, from Axios LOL. Do you think if y'all hadn't stolen the election Trump would kept after the Chinese? Of course he would. Russia's invasion and China's likely invasion of Taiwan as well as our botched withdrawal from Afghanistan is clearly because of a lack of leadership here.

 

[Up In Smoke]

the country passes a trillion dollar climate change bill to buy and support all kind of climate initiatives.
when they go and buy new solar panels are you saying they are paying for them with treasuries and not currency??

at some point the currency has to come in play . where does the extra 8 trillion dollars of currency come from if we're not printing more?

The currency comes from foreign countries, Federal pension funds, State pension funds, Union pension funds, hospital endowment funds, university endowment funds, Hedge Funds and Mutual funds. Banks, Credit unions, private equity groups and individual investors along with dozens of other entities keep treasuries as low risk investments. The treasury market exceeds 24T dollars in total with 5-7T dollars in weekly action.

 

[vantexan]

The currency comes from foreign countries, Federal pension funds, State pension funds, Union pension funds, hospital endowment funds, university endowment funds, Hedge Funds and Mutual funds. Banks, Credit unions, private equity groups and individual investors along with dozens of other entities keep treasuries as low risk investments. The treasury market exceeds 24T dollars in total with 5-7T dollars in weekly action.

So you're saying when our government was spending trillions they didn't have investors rushed in to make up the difference buying treasuries that didn't pay anything in interest?

 

[Up In Smoke]

In 2020, the treasury market for multiple months reached 12T in weekly action.

 

[Up In Smoke]

So you're saying when our government was spending trillions they didn't have investors rushed in to make up the difference buying treasuries that didn't pay anything in interest?

Rewrite please. This made no sense to me.

 

[Fred's Myth]

Rewrite please. This made no sense to me.

Punctuation.

So you're saying when our government was spending trillions they didn't have, investors rushed in to make up the difference, buying treasuries that didn't pay anything in interest?

 

[vantexan]

Rewrite please. This made no sense to me.

So you're saying when our government was spending trillions they didn't have, investors made up the difference by buying treasuries that paid very little interest? Is that better? The fact is our government, including in Trump's last year, put more money into circulation than in all the previous years of QE. We're now saddled with high inflation and the only real cure is to raise interest rates so high that it takes money out of circulation paying interest instead of spending it on goods and services. That includes capital investment as business depends on debt to finance expansion. So that kills the stock market. And much higher interest mortgages will crash home values so there goes the real estate market. I sense a refusal on your part to believe it's that bad. You're used to a bull market in everything. The silver lining is it's worse in China and Europe. So expect to see capital flight from overseas to the only safe haven which is U.S. long term bonds. 10 year and 30 year. Because it's better to save your capital than to lose it elsewhere. Those bonds become more valuable with demand so it's not just about low interest. And as the reserve currency the U.S. government will guarantee those bonds as they can always print money to pay them.

 

[Up In Smoke]

So you're saying when our government was spending trillions they didn't have, investors made up the difference by buying treasuries that paid very little interest? Is that better? The fact is our government, including in Trump's last year, put more money into circulation than in all the previous years of QE. We're now saddled with high inflation and the only real cure is to raise interest rates so high that it takes money out of circulation paying interest instead of spending it on goods and services. That includes capital investment as business depends on debt to finance expansion. So that kills the stock market. And much higher interest mortgages will crash home values so there goes the real estate market. I sense a refusal on your part to believe it's that bad. You're used to a bull market in everything. The silver lining is it's worse in China and Europe. So expect to see capital flight from overseas to the only safe haven which is U.S. long term bonds. 10 year and 30 year. Because it's better to save your capital than to lose it elsewhere. Those bonds become more valuable with demand so it's not just about low interest. And as the reserve currency the U.S. government will guarantee those bonds as they can always print money to pay them.

Thank you. QE was a process where the Fed bought treasuries (400B a year from 2008-2018) at a very small return on investment. The rest of the treasury market was gobbled up by the entities I mentioned earlier. I'm an options trader, so I prefer a choppy market. I posted my 2022 returns in another forum ( currently +7.2% before dividends) because it's easier to make money in a negative market. The mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year treasury, not the Fed funds rate. The dollar hit a multi year low in 2018 and only began to gain traction as the Fed announced tightening and QT.