Georgia Governor Kemp Is Catching Hell for Re-opening

Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage
Don't you even know how to look at projections?

Do I have to do a LMGTFY?
I certainly do know how to look at projections ... the one you provided is the worst projections I have ever seen!!!
Projections versus Reality
COVID-19 Actual Results Status Report

Kemp is looking like a genius so far!
Sporty's projections was 92 new cases for May 8th.
14 days in of Phase 1 and number of new cases in the last day is 32. *
Yesterday's new cases were 42.
The first day of Phase 1 was 789 new cases.

* Cutoff is Noon each day.

GA COVID Graph 8th MAY.jpg
 
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Sportello

Well-Known Member

floridays

Well-Known Member
Not my projections, the IMHE's projections. I truly hope things are getting better there, I have lots of family in GA.

Meanwhile, I see this:

Coronavirus in Georgia: COVID-19 Dashboard

I hope there is a downward trend, but we certainly don't know yet.

BTW, your link went nowhere. After poking around I found this:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/Consolidated-Forecasts-2020-05-04.pdf


and this:

new covid 19 cases in georgia - Google Search
The link @Old Man Jingles provided worked for me
COVID-19 Status Report
 

Sportello

Well-Known Member
Worked in Chrome, not Firefox. I see that the chart explicitly says that it trails by 14 days. The curve for confirmed cases has yet to flatten, though deaths seem to be falling. Time will tell. Stay healthy and wear a mask if you must go out.

* 14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending.
 

floridays

Well-Known Member
I see that the chart explicitly says that it trails by 14 days. The curve for confirmed cases has yet to flatten, though deaths seem to be falling.

I saw that disclaimer.
I have a completely different definition of confirmed.
To me it is like being pregnant, you are or you aren't.
When you are confirmed pregnant you will be listed as confirmed pregnant, until then no confirmation can be offered.
I find it hard to believe these numbers can lag 14 days, they don't ride the numbers to Albany on horseback or by foot carrier. Hell they say they update the numbers three times a day and explicitly list the times.
There should have been updates approximately eight minutes ago 19:08 eastern. When I started this post it was 32 confirmed cases today.

Confirmed means confirmed, in a legal sense.
We do know no tests can be confirmed for tomorrow currently and any confirmed case today or within the previous 14 day window allowed could only negatively affect todays total.
 

floridays

Well-Known Member
Worked in Chrome, not Firefox. I see that the chart explicitly says that it trails by 14 days. The curve for confirmed cases has yet to flatten, though deaths seem to be falling. Time will tell. Stay healthy and wear a mask if you must go out.

* 14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending.
After my previous post I looked at the confirmed numbers, it was 35 state wide. 19:20 was the time I checked the number.
You have to remember I'm in BC prison. It takes awhile for my posts to appear if they do appear.
 

Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage
Worked in Chrome, not Firefox. I see that the chart explicitly says that it trails by 14 days. The curve for confirmed cases has yet to flatten, though deaths seem to be falling. Time will tell. Stay healthy and wear a mask if you must go out.

* 14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending.
The graph is a 14 Moving Average for what has been reported.
Yeah! Numbers are going to change/correct over time.
That's why you use the 14-day Moving average to get directional visibility.
 

floridays

Well-Known Member
The graph is a 14 Moving Average for what has been reported.
Yeah! Numbers are going to change/correct over time.
That's why you use the 14-day Moving average to get directional visibility.
For myself, give me a confirmed number for each day, these days there is no reason for any number coming in two minutes after the time they have announced they would be posted.
I can make my own points on a graph for directional visibility.
There is absolutely no reason there can't be correct confirmed numbers daily of tested individuals positive or negative. Anything else is unacceptable.

My opinion.
 

zubenelgenubi

I'm a star
I looked at their graphs today.
They have updated their projections but are still much higher than actual!

They always have been. They based theirs off of the Imperial College Projections. Oxford's have been much closer because they assumed the virus had already been in circulation for months. None of the projections papers' mitigation recommendations called for shutting down businesses or healthy people staying home. Where did those policy decisions come from? Anyone? Anyone?
 

Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage
Kemp is looking like a genius so far!
Sporty's projections was 92 new cases for May 8th.
14 days in of Phase 1 and number of new cases in the last day is 32. *
Yesterday's new cases were 42.
The first day of Phase 1 was 789 new cases.

* Cutoff is Noon each day.
Not my projections, the IMHE's projections. I truly hope things are getting better there, I have lots of family in GA.
I hope there is a downward trend, but we certainly don't know yet.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/Consolidated-Forecasts-2020-05-04.pdf
and this:
new covid 19 cases in georgia - Google Search
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, announced Saturday the lowest number of coronavirus hospitalizations in The Peach State since state hospitals began reporting such information.

In a tweet celebrating the good news, Kemp also revealed that Saturday marked the lowest number of COVID-19 patients on ventilator support.

"Today marks the lowest number of COVID-19 positive patients currently hospitalized statewide (1,203) since hospitals began reporting this data on April 8th," Kemp said. "Today also marks the lowest total of ventilators in use (897 with 1,945 available). We will win this fight together!"

merlin_171413808_9c88cfb1-a5a2-4b06-af9c-54d9063069de-articleLarge.jpg
 
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