Israel

Thebrownblob

Well-Known Member
Depends on their intel and what they think is in their best interests. Personally I’m dubious they want to fight when the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia would be ready to throw down. But there’s always a price to pay even when you win. We tend to forget that.
About 3.5 billion
 

Next Day Err

Well-Known Member
Shutting up (not you, uncle Joe) and letting Israel grind Hezbollah into dust so their civilians can return to northern Israel sounds pretty good.
And if Israel invaded Lebanon and then is attacked by the IRGC? Iran could claim they are only attacking the IDF because it has invaded their ally. Then how do we react? Escalation like this isn’t impossible.
 

Box Ox

Well-Known Member
And if Israel invaded Lebanon and then is attacked by the IRGC? Iran could claim they are only attacking the IDF because it has invaded their ally. Then how do we react? Escalation like this isn’t impossible.

Iran can FAFO if it wants to. Doubt they would after seeing the FAFO Israel has been delivering to Hezbollah. Iran's leadership knows they'd be dead pretty quickly.
 

Next Day Err

Well-Known Member
Iran can FAFO if it wants to. Doubt they would after seeing the FAFO Israel has been delivering to Hezbollah. Iran's leadership knows they'd be dead pretty quickly.
If I may, I think Iran and the IRGC is more sophisticated than Hezbollah. I don’t think Israel or Iran wants an all-out war. We don’t either, we will be dragged into it and even a likely win has costs. Possibly immense costs. And we also have to remember Iran is a huge client state of Russia which is weakened and exposed but still capable of weighing in on this as well.

My opinion? The U.S. is hoping for a pause so we don’t get ultimately dragged into anything. Not exactly a groundbreaking opinion.
 

Box Ox

Well-Known Member
If I may, I think Iran and the IRGC is more sophisticated than Hezbollah. I don’t think Israel or Iran wants an all-out war. We don’t either, we will be dragged into it and even a likely win has costs. Possibly immense costs. And we also have to remember Iran is a huge client state of Russia which is weakened and exposed but still capable of weighing in on this as well.

My opinion? The U.S. is hoping for a pause so we don’t get ultimately dragged into anything. Not exactly a groundbreaking opinion.

Iran is a dictatorship and a dictator's #1 priority is self-preservation. Iran wouldn't do it for Hezbollah. Especially now that Hezbollah has vastly underperformed previous expectations.
 

Next Day Err

Well-Known Member
Iran is a dictatorship and a dictator's #1 priority is self-preservation. Iran wouldn't do it for Hezbollah. Especially now that Hezbollah has vastly underperformed previous expectations.
Could be right. Both of us don’t know what Mossad or CIA or the U.S. military is seeing right now. I think we have to have some humility about that.
 

vantexan

Well-Known Member
Iran is a dictatorship and a dictator's #1 priority is self-preservation. Iran wouldn't do it for Hezbollah. Especially now that Hezbollah has vastly underperformed previous expectations.
Iran not only has to worry about fighting Israel but also containing civil unrest at home. And ultimately Israel has nukes so if there's any possibility that Iran would overwhelm them on the battlefield and invade Israel's territory then Israel has the ultimate trump card.
 

Next Day Err

Well-Known Member
We have to take into account other things like the possibility the U.S. military wants 21 days to get into better position to help Israel in Lebanon in any way they can.

Could come down to domestic politics. Biden wants Harris and as many Democrats to win as possible. A whole new escalation on a new front risks that outcome. Not just about “the Juden”.

Any Republican President would do the same I think.
 

Next Day Err

Well-Known Member
Or it's just election season. ;)
Of course. Who’s to say what will happen after the election.

It seems that’s it’s always in America’s best interest to appear to be in control. We have a lot of that but it’s not total. Think Afghanistan in the 80’s and the genocide in Rwanda for example. We don’t want chaos, we want as much stability for ourselves as we can muster. If we want chaos we will make it. This situation doesn’t seem a lot different in that respect.
 

DriveInDriveOut

Inordinately Right
What’s been lost in our discourse since Internet forums became a thing is humility and nuance along with civility which thankfully we still have in this discussion.
Well that happens when people just spew nonsense then switch to a different username because they don't have enough integrity to stand by their comments.
 
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