BrownFlush
Woke Racist Reigning Ban King
I've noticed all the unasked advice and cuts in these threads that @DriveInDriveOut post are exactly what he needs to do.
newfie
Well-Known Member
Followed by 3.5?
DriveInDriveOut
Inordinately Right
Haven't seen that.
Have you considered that you probably gravitate towards those news stories because you're obsessed with him?
DriveInDriveOut
Inordinately Right
Watch 5's vs 10's. Squawk on the street says that if there's a rate inversion a recession is practically a sure bet.
Stock of UPS and FX now in bear market territory for the year. One of the reasons is a belief that Amazon Air will begin to take a hurtful amount of air box business away from UPS and FX.
brownmonster
Man of Great Wisdom
I'm rooting for it.
DriveInDriveOut
Inordinately Right
Lol
Old Man Jingles
Rat out of a cage
The inversion is caused at this time by the pressure of continuing interest rate raises by the Fed along with the uncertainty regarding trade/tariff talks and subsequent agreements between USA and China.
Look at the first derivative values of the yield curves ... it contradicts the inversion. The market concerns are not backed by the actual fundamentals.
The underlying assumption is that if the 3 year or 5 year yield rate is higher than the 10-yr Treasury bill yield, then a recession is imminent.
However, there is only a 20% chance prediction of a recession within the next year by analysts.
Hedge Funds are pushing the recession story to increase investments in their products.
Also, self-fulfilling predictions of a recession can cause artificial downward pressure on the market.
Looking at one indicator and ignoring causal drivers is a flawed approach.
The equity market is overpriced IMO so I see a settling of the S&P P/E ratios into a 16 to 18 range ... down from highs in the upper 20's and the current 22%.
Volatility will rule over the next 2 years ... I focus on my life and not my stocks.
My investment strategy remains the same regardless ... trying to time the market is a losing proposition.
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Old Man Jingles
Rat out of a cage
No
Leroy!No, I actually watched him say it several times in the last few weeks. If he's going to put that out there it's going to be reported.
With the VIX having jumped nearly 25% in just one day you can't help but think that that 20% chance is a bit lean.
Perhaps we can agree on one thing. It's going to get damn slow next year. The much touted 4% GDP figure?. Half that number will be cause for celebration.
Jkloc420
Do you need an air compressor or tire gauge
he needed a ride home toNo
Jkloc420
Do you need an air compressor or tire gauge
an offical recession is 2 quarters of negative growth, that is the offical sign. Second the market is down because at a certain level the computers kick in. Most people make money by staying the course.
Yes, long term usually pays off but we are driving into head winds driven by factors that have not been known to be kind to the markets whether you're long term or quick hitting short term investors.
newfie
Well-Known Member
There you go Debbie downer !!!
newfie
Well-Known Member
Will you be celebrating or do you need a negative number before you starting high fiving the bad news?
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