Will it be a bad deal for UPS? If they are successful and profit from the deal what’s your excuse then?
Pearl clutchers act as though this is a gold mine that FedEx is walking away from. FedEx was and probably would have continued to make money off of the deal but not enough to justify the effort.
The dwindling volume was making it less compatible for the FedEx network, namely creating too much excess capacity on the affected flights. You might say to take a smaller plane off of another route and put it on the mail route because that matches the volume to the plane, and you'd be right. But then you have to replace that smaller plane that came from another route, and you end up replacing it with a larger plane. You're simply moving the excess capacity from one flight to another.
You can ignore all of that if you want and just look at the numbers of the deal. Direct expenses of the USPS volume are around $1.5 billion annually. Most of those costs are fixed and can't be scaled down much, if at all. Our FY23 revenue from USPS was around $1.6 billion, down from previous years and the postal service says it's going to be sending less freight in the future. There are also significant savings that come from operation adjustments.
As for UPS, I don't know or care if it's a good deal for them. Depends on how well aligned the ratio of USPS volume to capacity is. Depends on how easily they can absorb that freight into their existing operations.