Only 5% of next car purchasers expect to buy all electric cars-Road and Track.

[UnionStrong]

Geography lessons are one of the many free services I offer here.

You couldn’t find your own butt with both hands.

 

[Non liberal]

Yes. Standard for a cold climate. Sparsely populated, but very dense and short distance commutes. EV's work just fine.
They sell fine in Canada and everywhere else.

They lose half their range, and nobody cares. That's because the lifestyle doesn't need it.

But if they lose half their range, they’ll lose half their lifespan as well. This is just going to take awhile, but eventually everyone will see they are a huge mistake. I just hope by then it’s not too late. Do you realize where this ev market is going? Buick just announced all ev by 2035 or so, also they are going to all one body style, suvs. Buick will only make one style of car by 2035. That is a damn shame. That’s the way they’ll all be in the future.

 

[Non liberal]

Geography lessons are one of the many free services I offer here.

I hope they’re better than your automobile expertise.

 

[wilberforce15]

But if they lose half their range, they’ll lose half their lifespan as well. This is just going to take awhile, but eventually everyone will see they are a huge mistake. I just hope by then it’s not too late. Do you realize where this ev market is going? Buick just announced all ev by 2035 or so, also they are going to all one body style, suvs. Buick will only make one style of car by 2035. That is a damn shame. That’s the way they’ll all be in the future.

Those aren't the same at all, actually. You can lose half the range and not affect lifespan.

Buick deserved to die decades ago. Let it go.

 

[wilberforce15]

You couldn’t find your own butt with both hands.

You haven't offered meaningful, correct information on any topic since you joined us. I like you better than Fake Texan and 0ojjoubomafu or whatever his stupid name is, but the ignore list is looking tempting.

 

[wilberforce15]

Sell it short or you just talk. I have little tolerance for people with strong opinions and nothing at stake.

 

[Non liberal]

Sell it short or you just talk. I have little tolerance for people with strong opinions and nothing at stake.

I’m not saying Tesla will fall flat on their face, although they might. What I’m saying is Toyota for one will level the playing field and then some when they get the price of batteries down. And they have the processes and manufacturing excellence to make a much higher quality vehicle at higher numbers.

 

[wilberforce15]

I’m not saying Tesla will fall flat on their face, although they might. What I’m saying is Toyota for one will level the playing field and then some when they get the price of batteries down. And they have the processes and manufacturing excellence to make a much higher quality vehicle at higher numbers.

But Tesla's valuation assumes it is going to rule the auto world. That's how it is priced, and then some. If they don't take over the world, you get free money by shorting it.

You are guessing based on name and history, not facts on the ground.

Toyota is Blockbuster.

They are way behind in processes, facilities, tech, supply chains, and everything else. They are among the least efficient and worst adapted EV makers. And they have no ability to change that.

 

[Non liberal]

But Tesla's valuation assumes it is going to rule the auto world. That's how it is priced, and then some. If they don't take over the world, you get free money by shorting it.

You are guessing based on name and history, not facts on the ground.

Toyota is Blockbuster.

They are way behind in processes, facilities, tech, supply chains, and everything else. They are among the least efficient and worst adapted EV makers. And they have no ability to change that.

They’ve been making hybrid vehicles since Elon musk was in high school, it took 25 yrs for the hybrid to capture 10% of the market share. They don’t need to scale anything up like Tesla does, they already know how to produce the best ev in the world, the production process and capacity are already there. Tesla is playing catch up to them in that department. They just need the batteries to come down in price to make it worth their while.

 

[wilberforce15]

They’ve been making hybrid vehicles since Elon musk was in high school, it took 25 yrs for the hybrid to capture 10% of the market share. They don’t need to scale anything up like Tesla does, they already know how to produce the best ev in the world. They just need the batteries to come down in price to make it worth their while.

Hybrids are irrelevant, and can be reasonably made within old ICE factories with retrofitting. An EV can't.

It requires a dedicated factory, designed from the ground up for the model that it is assembling. Otherwise, they will lose.

That's at least a 5 year process before they can match Tesla of 5 years ago.
The dedicated factories are why Tesla can have the highest margins in automotive history, while nobody else can even sell EV's at a profit.
The Ford 50k EV loses money on each one sold. The Tesla EV at 50k has about 12k of straight profit. Toyota can't and won't be able to sell an EV for profit at that price.

That's because Tesla can manufacture, and nobody else can.

It is an entirely different ballgame. Retrofitting factories can't and doesn't work.

 

[wilberforce15]

"The extreme difficulty of scaling production of new technology is not well understood. It's 1000% to 10,000% harder than making a few prototypes. The machine that makes the machine is vastly harder than the machine itself." - Elon Musk

While Tesla designed the biggest casting machines in the world and made factories 8x more space efficient than Toyota or VW, and then designed their own batteries and battery factories, the silly Japanese Blockbuster doesn't even have a single machine to make their machines.

 

[Non liberal]

Hybrids are irrelevant, and can be reasonably made within old ICE factories with retrofitting. An EV can't.

It requires a dedicated factory, designed from the ground up for the model that it is assembling. Otherwise, they will lose.

That's at least a 5 year process before they can match Tesla of 5 years ago.
The dedicated factories are why Tesla can have the highest margins in automotive history, while nobody else can even sell EV's at a profit.
The Ford 50k EV loses money on each one sold. The Tesla EV at 50k has about 12k of straight profit. Toyota can't and won't be able to sell an EV for profit at that price.

That's because Tesla can manufacture, and nobody else can.

It is an entirely different ballgame. Retrofitting factories can't and doesn't work.

In other words, the demand for electric vehicles isn’t what it needs to be yet. It is not all down hill from here for Tesla. Lol, no it isn’t a five year process. It’s all the same stuff except the drive train and the battery. How do u figure a five year process? They’ve already figured out how to do that 20 years ago. Lol

 

[wilberforce15]

In other words, the demand for electric vehicles isn’t what it needs to be yet. It is not all down hill from here for Tesla. Lol, no it isn’t a five year process. It’s all the same stuff except the drive train and the battery. How do u figure a five year process? They’ve already figured out how to do that 20 years ago. Lol

The entire structure of the car is different. The battery pack is part of the chassis. All of the progress of the car through the manufacturing stages has to be completely different. It's completely different equipment all the way around.

It cannot be made efficiently without a dedicated building. And it's going to take 5 years to get a dedicated building. They can build them before that, but they'll be selling them at a loss because they cannot make them efficiently without a dedicated building.


Ford is way ahead of toyota, and Ford can't sell them for profit.

 

[wilberforce15]

Your entire argument boils down to Toyota being good at making something completely different with equipment that's completely irrelevant to the new task. They have to start from scratch. They have not yet started.

They can use their current buildings, and they can make a possible ev. But they cannot do it for a profit at a reasonable price point. That's why they haven't done it. Tesla is making more money than all of them. The market is plenty big already, and if Toyota could beat Tesla, they already would be.

They aren't waiting. They just suck.

 

[wilberforce15]

Tesla can buy the entire Toyota Motor Corporation for about 1/5 of Tesla's own market cap.

And it wouldn't even want to. The market has spoken.

 

[vantexan]

Your entire argument boils down to Toyota being good at making something completely different with equipment that's completely irrelevant to the new task. They have to start from scratch. They have not yet started.

They can use their current buildings, and they can make a possible ev. But they cannot do it for a profit at a reasonable price point. That's why they haven't done it. Tesla is making more money than all of them. The market is plenty big already, and if Toyota could beat Tesla, they already would be.

They aren't waiting. They just suck.

Toyota makes solid, very reliable ICE cars and hybrids. At prices most can afford. They have actually been resistant until just recently to going into EV's. Most likely because they realize in the long run EV's are doomed to fail as the new paradigm. Oil is plentiful for at least a couple hundred more years. Metals necessary to make EV's aren't. Ultimately it's a losing proposition. But they are realizing also that it's both the latest trend and politically fashionable to be in the EV game. They may not conquer Tesla but I do expect them to turn out quality vehicles. If they offer solid EV's at a much lower price point then Tesla will have to do the same or just be consigned to luxury brand status. Almost no one is going to skip over a solid $30k EV to buy one at $50k no matter how good Tesla is.

 

[wilberforce15]

Toyota makes solid, very reliable ICE cars and hybrids. At prices most can afford. They have actually been resistant until just recently to going into EV's. Most likely because they realize in the long run EV's are doomed to fail as the new paradigm. Oil is plentiful for at least a couple hundred more years. Metals necessary to make EV's aren't. Ultimately it's a losing proposition. But they are realizing also that it's both the latest trend and politically fashionable to be in the EV game. They may not conquer Tesla but I do expect them to turn out quality vehicles. If they offer solid EV's at a much lower price point then Tesla will have to do the same or just be consigned to luxury brand status. Almost no one is going to skip over a solid $30k EV to buy one at $50k no matter how good Tesla is.

They cannot offer prices lower than Tesla. That's my entire point. It has nothing to do with what they can do with ICE and hybrids.
An EV is a completely different thing. Tesla has done more to revolutionize manufacturing than Toyota did for ICE.

The gap is so big that Tesla makes the biggest profit margins in automaker history at the same price point where the big three sell EV's for a loss. Let that sink in.

They can't produce a 30k EV, and if they do, it would be so bad nobody would want it. And if they did, Tesla could offer better at the same price point. The manufacturing edge is insurmountable.

 

[vantexan]

They cannot offer prices lower than Tesla. That's my entire point. It has nothing to do with what they can do with ICE and hybrids.
An EV is a completely different thing. Tesla has done more to revolutionize manufacturing than Toyota did for ICE.

The gap is so big that Tesla makes the biggest profit margins in automaker history at the same price point where the big three sell EV's for a loss. Let that sink in.

They can't produce a 30k EV, and if they do, it would be so bad nobody would want it. And if they did, Tesla could offer better at the same price point. The manufacturing edge is insurmountable.

Chevy is making a $30k Bolt right now. If Toyota comes up with similar then Tesla will finally have to do the same to be competitive. Or end up being considered the Lexus of EV's.

 

[wilberforce15]

Chevy is making a $30k Bolt right now. If Toyota comes up with similar then Tesla will finally have to do the same to be competitive. Or end up being considered the Lexus of EV's.

Yes. You just made my entire point.

GM's Barra admits the Chevrolet Bolt is not profitable | Car News | Auto123

GM boss Mary Barra acknowledges that the company’s electric vehicles are not making a profit for it. Auto123.com has details. Auto123.com has the details.

www.auto123.com

The Bolt is horrendously bad. Nobody wants it. They aren't even capable of making many.

And it doesn't make any money.
Toyota is behind even that.

 

[Non liberal]

Your entire argument boils down to Toyota being good at making something completely different with equipment that's completely irrelevant to the new task. They have to start from scratch. They have not yet started.

They can use their current buildings, and they can make a possible ev. But they cannot do it for a profit at a reasonable price point. That's why they haven't done it. Tesla is making more money than all of them. The market is plenty big already, and if Toyota could beat Tesla, they already would be.

They aren't waiting. They just suck.

No, they’re just not sure all electric is the future yet. They seem to be more interested in hybrids and hydrogen. Mostly hybrids which makes sense since the charging stations are not in place yet for the masses.