Have you heard of the Orion System, what do you know?

[tourists24]

P-man,

The flaw...is in the underlying assumption that the fastest and most efficient path to travel a on a given route is always the shortest.

We have drivers who have been instructed to drive out to and back from their delivery area via surface streets instead of taking the freeway or other major arterial roads. They are forced to cut through residential areas and wait at multiple stoplights. Would you agree that it takes less time to drive 20 miles on the freeway nonstop at 55mph than it does to drive 17.2 miles on congested surface streets at 35MPH with 15 stoplights to wade through? Any rational person would, but ORION doesnt. These drivers have seen an increase in idle time and paid day, and a decrease in SPORH, but none of that matters any more; in typical UPS fashion we care nothing about real-world results and everything about chasing a compliance metric.

Another flaw with ORION is the assumptions that it makes about how long it will take the driver to complete a given set of deliveries or pickups when it decides to have him break trace in order to meet some sort of a commit time. Lets say the driver has four Next Day Air stops for an office building that ORION is telling him to break trace for. If each one of the stops is for a different office on a different floor that will involve multiple waits for an elevator, he may need to arrive at that building as early as 10:10 in order to give himself time to find parking and make service on every stop prior to 10:30. If, on the other hand, all four stops are on the ground floor right next to a loading zone, he may very well be able to arrive at 10:25, which will allow him to complete the deliveries in an area instead of obeying ORION, breaking trace, and returning to that area later. Unfortunately.....the driver who uses common sense and area knowledge to make smart decisions will not be rewarded for his actions but will instead be reprimanded for failing to generate the 85% compliance metric.

There are countless other examples of situations where a driver with area knowledge and the ability to make live, firsthand observations of real-world load and traffic conditions will trump a system that is based solely upon GPS coordinates. What I am seeing is that ORION is, at best, a glorified version of EDD that might be of some value to a driver with no area knowledge but no real help at all to a driver like myself with 20 years of area knowledge. And any gains in productivity that might be realized through the intelligent and judicious use of ORION will be completely negated by the stupid and counterproductive choices we will be forced to make in order to chase a meaningless 85% compliance metric.

According to Pman though.... its worked for thousands of routes.... yours must be the exception... and all of the drivers you know

 

[BrownArmy]

I will run Orion for one week. I will compare stops and miles to the previous week. I will then ask my mgmnt team what I should do. No pressure.

I'm a cover driver, so this won't exactly work for me, but this is also my plan.

You want 85%, you'll get 85%.

We lost our Dispatch-Ninja to another center, and now we have another guy who is, what's the UPS parlance? Least best?

The Dispatch-Ninja (he really was awesome!) didn't have time to fix the DOL's in my center, and the new guy? He's finally got his head above water after a month on the job.

And when the Orion team comes in they'll be adding on a new layer of cluster8888 to the previous layers.

I hope it works really well, but I know it will only be marginally successful, at best.

It's like painting a house- if your prep sucks and you use a paint sprayer where you should be using brushes, the paint job won't last a year.

P-Man, how many UPS drivers are in the US?

Just curious.

 

[What'dyabringmetoday???]

Sober....

Lets take the two situations you mention.

For the first one, the deployment team should be adjusting the MPH on the surface streets to account for lights. I've seen this done. For instance the MPH on the surface street should changed to a more realistic 23MPH. If after the adjustment ORIOON still picks the surface street, this is reasonable.

For the second item on multiple stops at an address. You are correct. I asked this myself. I was told that an update is coming to adjust for the multiple deliveries.

The question still remains however. 3,000 drivers are using the system with the flaws you mention. Significant time and miles are being saved.....

When these things are improved, I guess the savings will as well.

Are these routes a mix of city and country? Are they all in the backwoods where it would be most challenging for system to work? Or, are they routes that are most likely to make the system appear to work favorably for the folks implementing it. (This is a serious question and not an attempt at humor or sarcasm)

 

[cosmo1]

Are these routes a mix of city and country? Are they all in the backwoods where it would be most challenging for system to work? Or, are they routes that are most likely to make the system appear to work favorably for the folks implementing it. (This is a serious question and not an attempt at humor or sarcasm)

Actually, I was on ORION for my last two weeks driving. On the rural half of my route, it started to make sense after I wrapped my head around the concept and looked at the whole section.

Back in town at the end of the day for my 40 or so residentials, it sucked big time!

 

[serenity now]

Actually, I was on ORION for my last two weeks driving. On the rural half of my route, it started to make sense after I wrapped my head around the concept and looked at the whole section.

Back in town at the end of the day for my 40 or so residentials, it sucked big time!

you are no longer relevant ( according to upstate )
go have a beer with Rod

 

[pretzel_man]

Are these routes a mix of city and country? Are they all in the backwoods where it would be most challenging for system to work? Or, are they routes that are most likely to make the system appear to work favorably for the folks implementing it. (This is a serious question and not an attempt at humor or sarcasm)

3,000 routes of all kinds except super urban.

It is not really possible to make things "appear to work". Yes, numbers can be manipulated with meaningless metrics, but...

The measurement of success is improvement in real metrics like SPORH, NDPPH, Cost, etc.

Did every driver improve? NO. Every center? NO.

But overall. Lots of improvement. Even witha flawed system

 

[cosmo1]

you are no longer relevant ( according to upstate )
go have a beer with Rod

OK.


(And suddenly, I miss Dave.)

 

[Coldworld]

They had orion in two building in my area (that run about 25 and 20 routes on a given day) about 3 years ago they pull the plug after a year of putting people up in hotels trying to tweek the system. But as you said they are still trying to implement a system that is only as good as the people inputting the information and updating it. Kind of like just plain old EDD.

This system should shave off some miles BECAUSE the original EDD system wasnt set up properly in the first place. Centers were told to go live by a certain date with NO input from drivers.EDD could do what this new system can IF the center had the time to look at things and not have to cut cars out in the 10 minutes before pcm...

 

[Speedy Cerviche]

3,000 routes of all kinds except super urban.

It is not really possible to make things "appear to work". Yes, numbers can be manipulated with meaningless metrics, but...

The measurement of success is improvement in real metrics like SPORH, NDPPH, Cost, etc.

Did every driver improve? NO. Every center? NO.

But overall. Lots of improvement. Even witha flawed system

I was with you until you said it's not possible to make things appear to work. You have people with a vested interest to make the numbers "work" who have access to the raw numbers. I guarantee, I absolutely guarantee, that if you gave me the raw numbers I could make them work or not work to whatever degree you, me, or our bosses demanded. Numbers are fun because they are both absolute and easily manipulated.

 

[Coldworld]

I was with you until you said it's not possible to make things appear to work. You have people with a vested interest to make the numbers "work" who have access to the raw numbers. I guarantee, I absolutely guarantee, that if you gave me the raw numbers I could make them work or not work to whatever degree you, me, or our bosses demanded. Numbers are fun because they are both absolute and easily manipulated.

You have a bright future ahead of you...as an IE manager...congratulations sir!!

 

[pretzel_man]

According to Pman though.... its worked for thousands of routes.... yours must be the exception... and all of the drivers you know

I don't know all the drivers that Sober knows, but I gave you the facts.

When Sober says things don't work for him or people he knows, I believe him....

You can choose to disregard the facts I gave you, that's up to you.

 

[pretzel_man]

I was with you until you said it's not possible to make things appear to work. You have people with a vested interest to make the numbers "work" who have access to the raw numbers. I guarantee, I absolutely guarantee, that if you gave me the raw numbers I could make them work or not work to whatever degree you, me, or our bosses demanded. Numbers are fun because they are both absolute and easily manipulated.

Speedy,

I've been around a long time, and I'm not sure how to manipulate the most of numbers I mentioned:

NDPPH? Cost per piece?

I guess you can manipulate SPORH and SPM, but good luck.

 

[Speedy Cerviche]

You have a bright future ahead of you...as an IE manager...congratulations sir!!

I'm cutting the two runs next to you on the Friday before Memorial Day. You'll learn....

 

[Speedy Cerviche]

Speedy,

I've been around a long time, and I'm not sure how to manipulate the most of numbers I mentioned:

NDPPH? Cost per piece?

I guess you can manipulate SPORH and SPM, but good luck.

I manipulate SPORH for sport. I mean, it helps that I'm naturally neurotic and a closeted nerd, but it's a small slice of fun trying to get as close to a round number as I can, or predicting what'll show up on tomorrow's report when I walk into the building.

I'd need to see the formula for cost per piece to tell you how I'd do it, but I'm guessing there are dozens of variables that go into what gets charged for every package. Surely there is one that can be monkeyed with. Math with variables is like math with letters - most people can't figure it out and that gives the people that can a lot of gray area to work with.

I don't know what SPM or NDPPH are ( something per minute and non domestic pieces per hour? I don't really care because it has no effect on my day). But I'm betting they're arbitrary formulas with a lot of variables used to describe complicated situations as simply as possible to people who don't really care about what's being described.

For what it's worth p-man, I believe in what orion is doing and what it can do for the company. My only dislike is the heavy handed way UPS introduces new equipment and technology. It's usually a good idea gift wrapped in an overly sunny lie. Just my opinion of course. Keep on fighting the good fight though, things will change irrespective of anything I think or you do.

 

[40andOut]

Well I just lost my 2nd metro pickup account because of ORION. We also have lost a NDA account that I used to deliver every other day. I am no longer consistent with delivery times and so as a result my customers don't know if they can turn product around (send out product on the same day I delivered it). As a result ALL of my pickup customers and some non-pickup customers are looking at competitors. Customers need consistent delivery times!

ORION makes me extremely inflexible and less intuitive. The great advantage that EDD gave us by being able to anticipate stops is at least partially negated by ORION. By running the route approximately the same way each day you get used to, and avoid problems before they occur, and also anticipate and utilize opportunities from sheer repetition. Most of the time you do it intuitively. ORION runs differently each day on my route so these advantages are gone.

You will not realize how many times a day you avoid pitfalls and utilize opportunities until you are trapped into using ORION. When I was a young gung-ho cut driver I could never understand how an overweight old route driver could do a route nearly as fast as I could. Doing the same route for a decade teaches you a few things. By scrambling the delivery order ORION takes away a great deal of those advantages that experience produces.

 

[40andOut]

In addition to the huge hit that service takes, ORION will also negatively impact safety. UPS drills us with safety habits and consistent delivery methods for good reason. By doing things the same way (using the same method) thousands of times many unsafe conditions are minimized. ORION makes you try to yank buried packages out of order setting you up for end-range motion strains. Also you will be traveling to stops from different directions than you are used to, so objects and ground that pose a hazard will not be anticipated intuitively.

Damages will also go up as you trample over floor stops to get to that one resi box that ORION is having you deliver to cut 1 tenth of a mile. Bulk floor stops are now sitting in my truck until 2 in the afternoon. So when I have an over 70 lb box, the floor is not clear, and I have to struggle over bulk to get it out.

Believe me I love technology when it works (EDD was a God-send on my route). ORION is useful at looping unconventionally and effectively on perhaps 10% of my stops. But the great gains it takes away (because of it's inflexibility) far outweigh the gains. Running ORION at around 90-95% (correcting obvious errors) on my route nets me about 20% MORE miles traveled (and on slower roads) than running regular EDD+ experience.

So the hidden costs of ORION may not show up on the next day's report. But we will see injuries and accidents increase, and we are already seeing customers jump ship.

 

[Indecisi0n]

In addition to the huge hit that service takes, ORION will also negatively impact safety. UPS drills us with safety habits and consistent delivery methods for good reason. By doing things the same way (using the same method) thousands of times many unsafe conditions are minimized. ORION makes you try to yank buried packages out of order setting you up for end-range motion strains. Also you will be traveling to stops from different directions than you are used to, so objects and ground that pose a hazard will not be anticipated intuitively.

Damages will also go up as you trample over floor stops to get to that one resi box that ORION is having you deliver to cut 1 tenth of a mile. Bulk floor stops are now sitting in my truck until 2 in the afternoon. So when I have an over 70 lb box, the floor is not clear, and I have to struggle over bulk to get it out.

Believe me I love technology when it works (EDD was a God-send on my route). ORION is useful at looping unconventionally and effectively on perhaps 10% of my stops. But the great gains it takes away (because of it's inflexibility) far outweigh the gains. Running ORION at around 90-95% (correcting obvious errors) on my route nets me about 20% MORE miles traveled (and on slower roads) than running regular EDD+ experience.

So the hidden costs of ORION may not show up on the next day's report. But we will see injuries and accidents increase, and we are already seeing customers jump ship.

It's not safe to dig out packages from the 5,6,7,8 section while the floor is still blown out. I refuse to use ORION and I haven't been instructed to use it yet.

 

[bottomups]

Our center had late air today and was messaged that it would be shuttled out to us after it was processed. Around 2pm I got the call from the air shuttle driver letting me know she would be at our normal meet point shortly. Told her I was 15 miles away at the time and the one package she had for me was only 1/2 mile from the meet point, and asked her to just deliver it. She called the center to explain the situation to management and asked for an OK to deliver it herself. Shortly afterwards I got a diad message from my center manager instructing me to break trace, pick up the package at the prearranged meet point and deliver it. Thirty-one miles and 45 minutes later I got back to my trace. And why are they rolling out Orion to save miles?

 

[brownmonster]

Our center had late air today and was messaged that it would be shuttled out to us after it was processed. Around 2pm I got the call from the air shuttle driver letting me know she would be at our normal meet point shortly. Told her I was 15 miles away at the time and the one package she had for me was only 1/2 mile from the meet point, and asked her to just deliver it. She called the center to explain the situation to management and asked for an OK to deliver it herself. Shortly afterwards I got a diad message from my center manager instructing me to break trace, pick up the package at the prearranged meet point and deliver it. Thirty-one miles and 45 minutes later I got back to my trace. And why are they rolling out Orion to save miles?

​My only comment is shaking my head.

 

[bottomups]

45 minutes overtime.
Around 20 minutes extra overtime on bonus with the increased miles.
3 gallons gas.
20 minutes overtime for the shuttle driver waiting for me.

Cost UPS between $80 and $100 extra to deliver this parcel then needed.
All because someone didn't want a late air to show up on an air shuttle report.
Wonder how this corporation makes money sometimes.