REAL CLEAR POLITICS..... polls and tracking!

[brett636]

Odds-Maker Intrade: Obama Will Be Re-elected

It's a toss-up.

I disagree, those intrade numbers haven't moved since the first debate which tells me they are being manipulated. Which I don't doubt they are. I will take your intrade prediction and raise you one Presidential election prediction model that has been right with every Presidential election since its inception in 1980

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

 

[Jones]

America will know who the next President is very early on election day. Florida, Ohio and Virginia will tell the tale. Who cares how Calif, Wash or Ore vote---by the time their results come in --the election will be over.

Well, they only tell the tale if Obama wins them because Romney can't win without them. Obama could lose all 3 of those states and still win if he carries WI, IA, CO, and NV.

 

[The Other Side]

I disagree, those intrade numbers haven't moved since the first debate which tells me they are being manipulated. Which I don't doubt they are. I will take your intrade prediction and raise you one Presidential election prediction model that has been right with every Presidential election since its inception in 1980

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

RUETERS disagrees with you BRETT...

Voter Registration Firm Employee Working For The Virginia GOP Arrested For Dumping Registrations | ThinkProgress

Doesnt look good for Romney in the IPSOS prediction.

Sorry.

TOS

 

[moreluck]

Obama’s smug, arrogant, condescending nature is coming through just in time for him to lose the election.

BOCA RATON, Fla. — Mitt Romney crossed a major threshold early this week, moving above 50 percent in his favorability rating with voters, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls — and for the first time in the campaign he now leads President Obama on that measure.

The Republican presidential nominee has clearly benefited from the debates. He had a 44.5 percent favorability rating at the end of September, before the debates. But by Monday, when he and Mr. Obama faced off for the final debate of the campaign, Mr. Romney’s favorability average was up to 50.5 percent.
Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, said Mr. Romney’s favorability surge “really has been remarkable.”

“It was inevitable that Republicans were going to warm up to him once he became their nominee, but ever since his big victory in the first debate, his numbers with independents have improved a good deal as well,” he said. “We’re actually finding in our national tracking now that Romney’s favorability numbers are better than Obama‘s, which no one could have imagined six months ago.”
​

 

[klein]

Obama holds narrow edge two weeks ahead of election: Reuters/Ipsos poll


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama pulled slightly ahead of Republican Mitt Romney in a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll on Tuesday, but the race remained essentially tied with two weeks to go until the November 6 election.
Obama led Romney among likely voters by a statistically insignificant margin of 1 percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent. The four-day online tracking poll includes some responses taken after the two candidates' final televised debate, but the full impact will not register for several days.

Obama maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 332 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes.

 

[moreluck]

You are posting in a thread titled "Real Clear Politics".....the R.C.P. poll says Romney is leading


General Election: Romney vs. Obama
RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes

All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data

 

[brett636]

You are posting in a thread titled "Real Clear Politics".....the R.C.P. poll says Romney is leading


General Election: Romney vs. Obama

RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes
Polling Data

All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data

The thread title should be "any poll that shows Obama winning". I guess the only problem with it is fewer and fewer polls are showing that.

 

[bbsam]

I disagree, those intrade numbers haven't moved since the first debate which tells me they are being manipulated. Which I don't doubt they are. I will take your intrade prediction and raise you one Presidential election prediction model that has been right with every Presidential election since its inception in 1980

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

brett, did you even read the article? How old is it? It speaks of data 5 months old that will be updated in September.

 

[804brown]

I disagree, those intrade numbers haven't moved since the first debate which tells me they are being manipulated. Which I don't doubt they are. I will take your intrade prediction and raise you one Presidential election prediction model that has been right with every Presidential election since its inception in 1980

Actually on the night of the first debate obama was 78% chance of winning re-election. When it was over obama dropped to mid 60s. He currently is around 59%. They "numbers moved"!! But in my opinion, in the wrong direction.

 

[Overpaid Union Thug]

I still say we should all pay attention to the Gallup.

As other polls show tight race, Gallup stands apart - Yahoo! News

 

[moreluck]

I still say we should all pay attention to the Gallup.

As other polls show tight race, Gallup stands apart - Yahoo! News

Dick Morris too has been saying "landslide" for Romney and has not changed.

 

[menotyou]

Dick Morris too has been saying "landslide" for Romney and has not changed.

Sorry. I just giggle when I hear his name. hehehehehe

 

[brett636]

brett, did you even read the article? How old is it? It speaks of data 5 months old that will be updated in September.

Here is your update. Still shows Romney winning.



Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

 

[av8torntn]

Stay tuned with Gallup... it will change this coming tuesday.

Ill remind you tuesday night you support it.

Peace in advance..

TOS

What was the big change tuesday night?

 

[MenInBrown]

What was the big change tuesday night?

probably that Obama is down double digits.

 

[The Other Side]

What was the big change tuesday night?

Romney went from plus +7 to +3 a loss of 4 points... next cycle should be tied.

peace

TOS

 

[The Other Side]

World polling shows OBAMA is worlds favorite over ROMNEY....

World Overwhelmingly Rejects Romney And Favors Obama In BBC Poll | Addicting Info

Peace

TOS

 

[over9five]

World polling shows OBAMA is worlds favorite over ROMNEY....

World Overwhelmingly Rejects Romney And Favors Obama In BBC Poll | Addicting Info

Peace

TOS

Who cares? They can't vote!

 

[klein]

Who cares? They can't vote!

You're right - but usually they'll vote for Anti-American parties (governments) afterwards, hurting your exports and job creation even more.
And don't forget Romney's planned trade-war with China and maybe India.

Good luck !

 

[moreluck]

If the world likes him so much......they can have him!!!